Season Tracker
Through five rounds, we're sitting at +23.55 units for the season. Round 5 banked another +5.10, the best round of the year so far. Six of the eight Best Bets landed including the Rabbitohs cover, the Panthers blowout, and the Manly demolition of the Dolphins pushing well over. The over 48.5 in the Eels vs Tigers game falling short in a 22-20 result that just missed by a couple of scores was the most painful miss.
The Panthers are still untouchable, the Tigers and Knights have surged into the top four, and the Dragons and Raiders are both staring down rough seasons. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Bulldogs vs Panthers
vs
The Panthers have completely dominated this fixture, leading 9-1 since 2020. Despite that, the underdog has still covered regularly and the average total sits at just 40.2, with the under hitting 60% of the time. Penrith are -17.5 here with a total of 47.5.
The Bulldogs come into this game without Stephen Crichton, which is massive. They're 2-7 ATS (22%) without him and have never won or covered at home in those games. Even in the finals last year, the Panthers put 46 on them, and this current Penrith side looks even better. Look at what happened last week without Crichton on the field, the Bunnies won the second half 20-6.
The Panthers are 5-0, 5-0 ATS and simply a level above everyone right now. They're averaging 38.0 points per game while conceding just 8.0. With the Bulldogs struggling to score, it's hard to see how they keep this close.
If the Panthers get to 30+, which looks likely, it's tough to see the Bulldogs getting past 16 to 18 points. That margin alone gets you close to the number.
On the total, I lean over. The Bulldogs attack is a concern, but the Panthers could threaten this number on their own given their current form. The only hesitation is whether the Bulldogs can contribute enough.
Best Bet: Panthers -17.5 $1.90 (2 units)Dragons vs Sea Eagles
vs
The Dragons lead this fixture 5-4 since 2020 and have won 4 of 5 at home against Manly. This has been a relatively even matchup, with the under hitting 56% of the time and an average total of 42.7. The Sea Eagles are -8.5 with a total of 49.5.
The Dragons have been awful this season and were embarrassed 32-0 at home by the Cowboys last week. The Sea Eagles finally got their first win with an impressive performance over the Dolphins, but their season overall has still been inconsistent.
This is purely a narrative play, but I lean Dragons. Shane Flanagan is under serious pressure and this feels like a spot where the Dragons respond. They're a proud club and have a strong record in this fixture at home. Gutherson being out could actually provide a spark, with Sloan likely to bring more attacking energy at fullback. The Dragons have lacked confidence more than anything, and this could be the spot where they show improvement.
I'm not sold on Manly either. That win over the Dolphins could prove to be a flash in the pan, and based on what we've seen this season, laying 8.5 points with them feels too big. If the Dragons lose by 20 or win outright, neither would surprise me, which says everything about where they're at.
On the total, I lean under but with no confidence. The Dragons have struggled badly in attack, but Manly games have been high scoring all season, which creates conflicting signals.
Best Bet: Dragons +8.5 $1.90 (1 unit)Broncos vs Cowboys
vs
The Broncos lead this fixture 8-4 since 2020 and have won 5 of 6 at Suncorp, including the last 4 overall. This is typically a high scoring matchup, averaging 51.1 points, with 10 of 12 meetings going over. Brisbane are -3.5 here with a total of 49.5.
Both teams come in on three game winning streaks. The Broncos are winning differently though, tightening things up defensively and allowing just 12.6 points per game over their last three. The Cowboys have also found form, highlighted by their 32-0 win last week.
I like the Broncos here. They've dominated this matchup, particularly at Suncorp, and have covered 5 straight in this fixture when the line is under 4 points. Even without Walsh and Hunt, their defence has been the difference and gives them the edge. The concern is Reynolds being banged up, but if he gets through, Brisbane should control this.
On the total, I lean under. This goes against the strong historical trend, but both teams have gone under in their last three games and the Broncos defensive improvement stands out. Walsh is a big loss for their attacking upside and Brisbane are clearly comfortable playing tighter, lower scoring games right now. Suncorp and H2H history point to the over, but current form leans the other way.
Best Bet: Broncos -3.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Rabbitohs vs Raiders
vs
The Raiders lead this fixture 5-1 since 2020 and have won the last four meetings, scoring 30+ in most of those. Historically, they've had the edge, but current form tells a very different story. The Rabbitohs are -5.5 with a total of 49.5.
The Rabbitohs are 3-1 and look sharp, while the Raiders are 1-4 and struggling badly, averaging just 15.8 points per game. Their attack has completely stalled and they've failed to cover in four straight.
This game is in Perth, which removes any real home ground edge. Historical trends at the venue are neutral, so it comes down to form and team quality.
I'm high on the Rabbitohs here. Their left edge with AJ, Latrell and Fifita is one of the best in the competition and they simply look like the better side right now. The Raiders may have the H2H edge, but based on what we've seen this season, it's hard to back them.
On the total, I lean over. Conditions should be ideal in Perth and the Rabbitohs have the ability to push games past this number when their attack clicks. The Raiders are the concern, but if they can contribute even modestly, this can get there.
Best Bet: Rabbitohs -5.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Sharks vs Roosters
vs
A tight matchup. The Roosters lead the H2H 5-4 since 2020 but the Sharks have won the last two meetings. The underdog has had success in this fixture and the average total sits at 45.8, well below this line. The Roosters are -1.5 with a total of 51.5.
The Sharks were solid last week against the Warriors, while the Roosters come in fresh off a bye. Both teams have been inconsistent to start the season.
I like the Roosters here. The bye came at the right time and they should be better for it. Their attack hasn't clicked yet with Walker and DCE, but there's too much quality there for that to continue. There's also a bit of a bounce back angle with the Roosters knocked out by the Sharks in last year's finals. These are the types of games teams tend to circle.
The Sharks are strong at home, but with this game in Perth, the home advantage doesn't really come into it. I'm backing the Roosters to respond.
On the total, I lean over. This is more of a feel play than a numbers one. The Roosters haven't fully clicked in attack yet but have the weapons, and the Sharks can score as well. If this opens up even slightly, it can get past this number.
Best Bet: Roosters -1.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Storm vs Warriors
vs
The Storm are 9-0 in this fixture since 2020 and have completely dominated, with an average total of 57.6. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone over and this has consistently been one of the highest scoring matchups. Melbourne are -9.5 with a total of 47.5.
Both teams started the season strongly but have hit a rough patch, with the Storm losing three straight and the Warriors dropping their last two. This shapes as a clear bounce back spot for both sides.
I lean Storm. The line has already moved from -5.5 out to -9.5 and could keep climbing. Given how dominant Melbourne have been in this fixture and their record at AAMI Park, this is the spot where they get their season back on track. It's close to a like, purely based on the bounce back angle and the historical dominance.
On the total, I like the over. This fixture consistently produces points and both teams have shown they can score and concede this season. Even if the Storm tighten up defensively, they should still put up 30+, and if the Warriors contribute even modestly, this total is very achievable.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 Total Points $1.90 (2 units)Eels vs Titans
vs
The Eels lead this fixture 6-2 since 2020 and have won all three at home, including a 36-20 win in the most recent meeting. Historically, the underdog has been the better ATS play, with the favourite covering just three times in eight games. Parramatta are -3.5 with a total of 51.5.
The Eels have been involved in high scoring games this season, largely due to their defensive issues, while the Titans have struggled badly in attack, averaging just 14.8 points per game with four of five games going under.
The Eels have a few outs but it doesn't move the needle much given they've already been dealing with key absences. The Titans are unchanged.
I like the Eels here. They've been the better side this season and were right in the fight last week in a game that went to golden point. This is a numbers play as much as anything. They only need to win by more than a try. The Titans have also struggled badly in Sydney, winning just once in their last 10 and covering at 30% in those games. They haven't beaten the Eels in Sydney this decade.
On the total, I lean under. This game could go one of two ways, but the Titans' inability to score consistently pulls me towards the under. If the Eels control the game, this likely stays below the number.
Best Bet: Eels -3.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Wests Tigers vs Knights
vs
Both teams have been one of the biggest surprises to start the season and deservedly sit inside the top four. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS and have impressed with their defensive turnaround, while the Knights are 4-1 and continue to find ways to win. The Tigers are -3.5 with a total of 49.5.
I don't have a strong feel on the side here. I lean towards the Tigers mainly due to them being at home and the short number, but the Knights' dominance in this fixture (9 wins from 12 since 2020) is the key reason this doesn't get to a like. That historical edge is hard to ignore even with both teams in strong current form.
From a form perspective, I've been slightly more impressed with the Tigers. The win over the Warriors in New Zealand stands out given the Knights were beaten comfortably by the same side, and they also stayed competitive against the Rabbitohs. The Knights' best win came against the Bulldogs, but overall both teams are tracking well.
On the total, I lean under. This fixture has consistently trended low scoring with an average of just 39.3 points, and both teams have leaned under this season, combining for a 6-3 under record across nine games. Even with improved attacking output, the defensive profiles and matchup history point towards another tighter contest.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)