Season Tracker
Through eight rounds, we're sitting at +25.10 units for the season. Round 8 added +5.10 with six wins from eight Best Bets. The Dragons vs Roosters over at 78 points was the highlight, while the Tigers, Sea Eagles and Panthers all covered comfortably. The misses were the Sharks getting beaten in a Townsville shootout and the Storm continuing to fall apart against the Rabbitohs.
The Panthers and Roosters look the two clear premiership contenders, the Storm slump rolls on, and the Bulldogs are slipping fast. Eight games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Bulldogs vs Cowboys
vs
The Cowboys have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. Historically a low scoring matchup with an average total of just 33.6 points, and the under has hit in 7 of those 10 games. Bulldogs are -1.5 here with a total of 51.5.
The Bulldogs have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. After a couple of early wins, things have fallen away quickly with a poor 2-5 ATS record. They've struggled to consistently put points on the board, averaging just 19.0 per game. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but dangerous when their attack clicks, coming off a high scoring win over the Sharks.
There are a couple of outs with Kikau missing for the Bulldogs and Taulagi out for the Cowboys, but neither significantly shifts the needle.
I lean Bulldogs. This is more of a spot play than anything. They're at home, likely desperate to respond after a poor run, and I generally don't like backing the Cowboys in Sydney. Despite the Cowboys strong recent H2H record, this sets up as a bounce back spot for Canterbury.
On the total, I lean under. The Bulldogs have struggled to score consistently this season, only clearing 20 points twice, and I expect a more defensive approach after conceding 30+ in three of their last four games. This number feels too high given the historical profile of this matchup.
Best Bet: Under 51.5 Total Points $1.90 (1 unit)Dolphins vs Storm
vs
The Storm lead this fixture 3-1 since the Dolphins entered the competition, with the favourite covering 75% of the time. The over has been the dominant trend, hitting in 3 of 4 meetings with an average total of 53.0, right around this week's number. Dolphins are -3.5 with a total of 53.5.
Both teams are in terrible form. The Dolphins are on a four game losing streak, while the Storm have lost six straight and are in a full blown slump. The Dolphins have been competitive in most games but unable to close, while the Storm are conceding nearly 30 points per game and look a shadow of what they have been in previous years.
The Dolphins will be without Jake Averillo, while the Storm will be without Jahrome Hughes. Those outs don't significantly shift the handicap.
I lean Dolphins. They're at home and look the more functional side right now, but there are too many red flags to have any confidence. The Dolphins have struggled as favourites this season, while the Storm, despite their form, still have the class to turn things around at any point.
On the total, I lean over. Suncorp is generally a high scoring venue, the Storm are leaking points, and this matchup has trended over historically. That said, the Dolphins have been trending under this season, so there are enough conflicting signals to keep this as just a lean.
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 $1.90 (1 unit)Titans vs Raiders
vs
The Raiders have dominated this fixture, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. The average total is 46.5, well below this week's line, with the under hitting in 5 of those 10. Titans are -1.5 here with a total of 53.5.
Both teams have been inconsistent this season. The Titans come off a bye with a 4-3 ATS record but have struggled to score, with five of seven games going under. The Raiders have been just as unreliable, sitting 3-5 ATS and coming off a poor loss to the Tigers after briefly finding form.
The Raiders will be without both edge forwards from last week in Noah Martin and Zac Hosking, which leaves them understrength up front and a bench that could be exposed over the course of the game. That's a key factor here.
I like the Titans. Despite the Raiders' dominance in this fixture, the Titans off a bye in this spot look to have the edge through the middle. If they can lay a platform up front, their backs should be able to take advantage.
On the total, I lean under. Both teams have consistently trended under this season, with just 4 of their combined 15 games clearing this number. While Cbus can produce points and conditions may suit an open game, those factors feel priced into the line. With a chance of rain and both attacks struggling for consistency, the under is the only way I can look.
Best Bet: Titans -1.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)Eels vs Warriors
vs
The Eels lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. The over has been dominant, hitting in 7 of those 10 with an average total of 46.6 points. Warriors are -7.5 with a total of 53.5.
The Eels continue to struggle defensively, conceding nearly 35 points per game this season, which has pushed five of their eight games over the total. The Warriors sit at 6-2 and have been more balanced, averaging over 30 points per game while maintaining a solid defensive base.
There are minimal team changes this week, with nothing that significantly shifts the matchup. Luke Metcalf is a potential inclusion to the Warriors starting 13, but overall both sides are fairly settled.
I lean Eels. This feels like a tricky spot for the Warriors coming off back to back home wins and now laying more than a converted try on the road. The Eels have been strong ATS at home (7-3 in their last 10), and while they're far from reliable, this is the type of game where they can keep it close or even pull off an upset.
On the total, I like the over. This fixture has consistently produced points, going over in the majority of meetings. The Eels' defensive issues continue to inflate totals, and the Warriors have been involved in high scoring games in Australia this season. CommBank has also been a high scoring venue this year, averaging 57 total points, with only one game falling below 50.
Best Bet: Over 53.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Roosters vs Broncos
vs
The Roosters lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. Totals have been evenly split with 5 overs and 5 unders, and the average sits at 49.1 points, just below this week's line. Roosters are -4.5 with a total of 51.5.
The Roosters come into this in red hot form, winning five of their last six and averaging over 30 points per game this season. Their games have been high scoring, going over in six of seven. The Broncos have also been impressive, winning five of their last six, but have done it through defence with six of eight games going under.
The Broncos welcome back key players Walsh and Carrigan, while the Roosters remain unchanged. Payne Haas remains a notable absence for Brisbane, which could be felt through the middle.
I like the Roosters here. This shapes as a genuine heavyweight clash and arguably a preview of a deep finals matchup. The Roosters attack has been on another level, and at home they have been consistently putting up big numbers. Even with the Broncos improving defensively, the Roosters' weapons out wide, particularly their aerial threats, give them a clear edge.
On the total, I also like the over. Allianz Stadium has been one of the best over venues, with 11 of the Roosters' last 14 games there going over at an average of 54 points. Even with the Broncos' defensive improvements and key players returning, the Roosters' attacking form is hard to ignore.
Best Bet: Roosters -4.5 $1.90 (2.5 units)Knights vs Rabbitohs
vs
This fixture is evenly split 5-5 over the last 10 meetings. Totals have also been balanced with 5 overs and 5 unders, and an average of 45.9 points sitting below this week's number. Recent matchups have been mixed, with both sides trading wins and results varying depending on form. Rabbitohs are -1.5 with a total of 52.5.
The Knights come into this off three straight losses, but they get a massive boost this week with the return of Best, Lucas, Marzhew, Ponga and Frizell. That's a huge injection of quality and experience, particularly in attack. The Rabbitohs, meanwhile, are one of the form teams in the competition, winning four of their last five and averaging over 32 points per game in 2026.
I lean Rabbitohs. They're the better team right now and their attack is firing, but this is far from straightforward. The Knights at home with all their key players returning makes this a dangerous spot, and this shapes as a potential season defining game for them.
On the total, I like the over. The Knights are conceding heavily at home, allowing over 30 points per game, while the Rabbitohs have scored 30+ in four straight. With the Knights getting their attacking weapons back, they should contribute enough to push this into a higher scoring game.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 Total Points $1.90 (2 units)Sharks vs Wests Tigers
vs
The Sharks lead this fixture 7-3 over the last 10 meetings. Totals have been evenly split with 5 overs and 5 unders, and an average of 45.7 points sitting below this week's line. Recent matchups have been mixed, with both blowouts and tighter contests. Sharks are -6.5 with a total of 53.5.
The Sharks return home after a loss to the Cowboys and remain one of the strongest home ATS teams in the competition, going 9-1 in their last 10 at Shark Park. They've been involved in high scoring games this season, conceding over 28 points per game. The Wests Tigers, meanwhile, have been the best ATS side in the league at 6-1, built off their defensive improvements, with five of seven games going under.
Team news is key here with the Tigers missing Koroisau and Bula, two critical pieces of their spine. That has the potential to significantly impact both their attacking fluency and defensive organisation through the middle.
I lean Sharks. This sets up as a strong bounce back spot at home, and with the Tigers missing key spine players, the Sharks should have the edge. That said, the Tigers' 6-1 ATS record keeps this from being a confident play.
On the total, I like the over. Sunday afternoon in the Shire with good conditions typically lends itself to points, and the Sharks games have consistently been high scoring this season. While the Tigers' defence has been strong, the absence of Koroisau could be significant, particularly through the middle. The Sharks are conceding points, and both teams should have enough attacking output to push this over the number.
Best Bet: Over 53.5 Total Points $1.90 (1.5 units)Panthers vs Sea Eagles
vs
The Panthers have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. The over has hit in 5 of 9 games with available data, and the average total sits at 46.2 points, slightly below this week's number. Panthers are -12.5 with a total of 51.5.
Penrith have been dominant again in 2026, sitting 7-1 and winning most games comfortably. At home, they have been particularly ruthless, winning every game by 20+ points this season. The Sea Eagles come in on a four game winning streak under Kieran Foran, scoring 142 points across that stretch, but the quality of opposition hasn't been at the level they face here.
There are no major team changes, but there is some uncertainty around Jamal Fogarty. If he's ruled out, that's a significant blow to Manly's ability to control the game, particularly against the best defensive side in the competition.
I like the Panthers. They're clearly the best team in the NRL right now and this sets up as another strong home performance. With the way they have been winning, the -12.5 looks very achievable, especially if the Sea Eagles are disrupted in the halves.
On the total, I lean over. Even though Panthers home games have trended under historically, their current form has been built on scoring points, and they have shown they can get near this number themselves. The Sea Eagles have also been playing in higher scoring games during their winning streak.
Best Bet: Panthers -12.5 $1.90 (1.5 units)