Season Tracker
Through 17 rounds, we're sitting at +57.19 units for the season, with an overall record of 87-47 (64.93%). Round 17 was the first losing round in a while, down 2.16 from a 5-5 card. The Dolphins scraping home by two to land the 1-12 margin at $2.95 and the Dragons hanging in for the +10.5 were the highlights, while the two either team by 1-10 plays were both buried by blowouts and the Panthers could not break a 10-10 deadlock at the break. Nothing alarming, just a flat week.
The Panthers still sit clear at the top despite their first back to back losses of the season, the Dragons are anchored to the bottom on 1-14, and a logjam fills the middle. Seven teams have the bye coming out of Origin, so it is a short five game card. Five games this round and a Best Bet on every one. Here's how I'm reading each.
Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
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Penrith have owned this fixture lately, winning eight of the last ten meetings. The favourite has covered in six of those ten and the scoring has stayed in check, with the average total sitting at 40.6. The last three meetings have produced 46, 46 and 40, and while three of the last five have crept over this weeks total, the under has landed in six of the last ten. The line is Panthers -4.5 with the total at 45.5.
Penrith arrive off back to back losses for the first time this season, beaten by the Titans and then upset away in Townsville. Both of those were on the road in Queensland, and they come back to CommBank with something to prove. They are without their Origin contingent in Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin, and they also lose Papali'i to HIA protocols. Even so, the side that runs out here looks a lot like the one that came unstuck on the Gold Coast, and a group with this much pride will be hurting. Brian To'o and Dylan Edwards both stay, and both have a point to prove after missing Origin selection.
South Sydney are missing Cameron Murray and Alex Johnston. Of the two it is Murray's loss that carries the most weight, taking away their engine through the middle, while Johnston's absence thins them out on the left edge.
On the spread, the line opened at Panthers -3.5 and has since pushed out to -4.5. I still lean Penrith. They are the better team even with these line-ups, and the motivation after two weeks of disappointment is real. If they can contain the Rabbitohs through the middle, they have the class to win this comfortably enough.
On the total, last week saw all eight games finish under, the first time that has happened in a long while, and the book may well have trimmed this number in response. With Penrith likely to lean on their defence and grind this out, I slightly favour the under, but with this many ins and outs on both sides it stays a lean rather than a bet.
Where I land is the first half. Penrith have led at the break in thirteen of their fifteen games, the only exceptions being the level scoreline against the Cowboys last week and the round six loss to the Bulldogs. Two and a half would be niggly, but at one and a half there is real value in them coming out hot and laying down a marker early. I would not be surprised to see this line climb to -2.5 closer to kick off.
Best Bet: Panthers -1.5 at Half-Time $1.78 (1.5 units)