Thursday and Friday games only. Six teams in action: Cats, Lions, Eagles, Crows, Swans, Bulldogs.
Defenders
Darcy Wilmot (Lions v Cats) · Pred: 112
Wilmot tops the primetime defender rankings for the round. The headline number is a 17.3 point improvement in his season average when Zorko doesn't play, and Zorko is out again this week. The Cats rank eighth for defender concede, a broadly neutral matchup, but it matters less when the role and team dynamic is this clearly in his favour.
The one flag: Rowbottom surprised us with attention on Wilmot last round, which needs to be monitored going forward. That said, Mullin, Atkins and O'Connor, the Cats' most likely taggers, don't have a history of forward tagging, so the risk appears low this week. He also took five kick-ins last round (45%), adding a further floor to his scoring if that role continues.
Nick Blakey (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 108
The matchup makes this selection straightforward. The Bulldogs rank first in the competition for points conceded to defenders, and it goes deeper than the headline number. They are also first for marks conceded to defenders and first for kicks conceded to defenders. Three separate indicators pointing to the same conclusion.
That data is backed up by recent results: Wilkie (142), Laird (152) and Impey (133) have all posted massive scores against the Bulldogs across their last three games. There is no established forward tagger in the Bulldogs' line-up to disrupt Blakey's distribution. He also took four kick-ins last round (33%). Ranked second among primetime defenders for the round.
Tom McCarthy (Eagles v Crows) · Pred: 107
No single standout reason drives this selection. McCarthy comes in on depth of season average relative to the available primetime defender pool. He took five kick-outs last round (35%), suggesting active involvement in first use. Third-ranked primetime defender for the round with no obvious concerns around role, tagging or matchup.
Callum Mills (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 103
Mills picks up the same Bulldogs matchup as Blakey, which is the best defensive matchup available in primetime. The Bulldogs rank first for defender concede and second for midfielder concede, meaning Mills benefits from the matchup regardless of where the model classifies him.
The key data point this week is his CBA trend. His last three-round CBA sits at 21%, a 15 percentage point increase on his season average, and the correlation is clear: that jump lines up directly with McInerney's absence. Without McInerney across the last two rounds, Mills is averaging 18.2 points above his season average when playing alongside him. The role expansion is real and the matchup supports it. Fourth-ranked primetime defender for the round.
Josh Worrell (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 101
A confluence of factors makes Worrell a compelling selection this week. The Eagles rank seventh for defender concede, a solid matchup in the primetime pool. At the team level, Keane's return should allow Worrell to avoid the biggest key tall matchup or at least shift to a lesser option, freeing up his disposal game. Milera's absence from the Crows' line-up removes another potential distributing defender from the equation, which should leave more of the short ball to Worrell and Laird to share.
There is also a tagging scenario that could work in Worrell's favour. If Rory Laird attracts Milan Murdock's attention, which is a genuine possibility given Murdock's tagging history, that opens further space for Worrell to be the primary distributor out of defence. He took six kick-ins in his return last week (31%), confirming the role is intact. Fifth-ranked primetime defender this round.
Lawson Humphries (Cats v Lions) · Pred: 100
The Lions rank 17th for defender concede, which is a genuine concern and worth being transparent about. But context matters here, and the context favours Humphries.
Tom Stewart is returning this week, but it is his first game back. A first-week return could limit the ceiling on his role and output, making Humphries the more predictable scoring option of the two. With Ginbey out, Duggan's numbers are reduced, and if Laird attracts the Murdock tag he becomes unavailable as a selection option, both of which narrow the primetime defender pool and push Humphries up the list of viable picks. Given the situation, Humphries is one of the better options on paper despite the Lions' negative matchup. Sixth-ranked primetime defender for the round. The Lions matchup is the only genuine red flag.
Jai Serong (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 90
Serong is included here as a defender classification but the logic mirrors Blakey and Mills exactly: the Bulldogs matchup is the driver. They rank first for defender concede and second for midfielder concede, so regardless of how his role is read, the opponent is working in his favour.
The same depth-of-options logic that applies to Humphries applies here: with Stewart fresh back, Laird potentially tagged and Duggan's numbers reduced, Serong becomes one of the more attractive selections available in primetime. Tenth-ranked primetime defender for the round.
Midfielders
Bailey Smith (Cats v Lions) · Pred: 138
The top-ranked primetime midfielder for the round and the highest season average in the pool. Smith's 77% CBA rate, trending up to 83.7% across his last three, underpins everything. The Lions rank seventh for midfielder concede, a broadly neutral matchup that does nothing to dampen a player scoring at this level.
The one flag is Jarrod Berry, who could drift to Smith at some point, but Berry is not an established hard tagger and Smith is unlikely to face the kind of attention that would materially dent his output. At this level of CBA dominance and season average, he is the standout selection.
Isaac Heeney (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 129
The Bulldogs rank second in the competition for midfielder concede: the same matchup that makes Blakey and Mills compelling in defence applies equally to Heeney in the midfield. The data from recent games backs it up: Newcombe (136), Will Day (129), Dawson (183), Wanganeen-Milera (170) and Hugo Garcia (152) are the scores the Bulldogs have conceded to midfielders across their last three games.
There is no recognised Bulldogs tagger to worry about, which keeps the ceiling clear. When Heeney shifts forward, the Bulldogs also rank fourth for forward concede, giving him a second avenue to score. His last three CBA sits at 87%, a significant jump above his 75.8% season average, indicating a role that is growing as the season progresses. Second-ranked primetime midfielder.
Errol Gulden (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 127
The logic mirrors Heeney exactly: same matchup, same absence of a Bulldogs tagger, same open scoring environment. The Bulldogs are second for midfielder concede and the recent scores against them speak for themselves.
The one concern is Gulden returning from a long-term injury. If there is any doubt about his workload, that is the risk to weigh. Third-ranked primetime midfielder.
Jordan Dawson (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 124
Dawson is tipped to receive the Brady Hough tag this week, and that penalty is already baked into his predicted score of 124, which still leaves him as the fourth-ranked primetime midfielder. The Eagles rank fifth for midfielder concede, a solid matchup in its own right.
The form is exceptional. Dawson's last five scores read 126, 113, 183, 157 and 157. His CBA has surged to 79% across his last three rounds, a 15 percentage point increase on his 64% season average, indicating a role that has expanded significantly in the back half of the season. Even with the Hough tag applied, the form and matchup make him difficult to leave out.
Max Holmes (Cats v Lions) · Pred: 121
Holmes shares the Cats v Lions matchup with Smith. The concern here is the same as for Lions mids in general: the Cats rank 14th for midfielder concede, which is a genuine headwind if Holmes operates through the midfield. The added wrinkle is that Holmes has seen a 14% decrease in his CBA across his last three games compared to his season average (31% vs 45%), suggesting he has been spending more time in defensive positions. If that shift off half-back continues, the Lions' #16 defender concede rank becomes the relevant number rather than their midfielder concede. Fifth-ranked primetime midfielder.
Marcus Bontempelli (Bulldogs v Swans) · Pred: 120
The Bulldogs' matchup against Sydney works against Bontempelli here. The Swans rank 15th for midfielder concede and 14th for forward concede. Neither slot offers a meaningful advantage, which explains why he ranks sixth among primetime midfielders despite his 76% season CBA (trending up to 83.3% last three).
The tagging picture is worth watching. The most likely scenario has Richards attracting the Jordon tag and Dale picking up Rowbottom, leaving Bontempelli untagged. But if that changes and Bontempelli receives attention, the tough matchup compounds the problem. If you believe he gets tagged, this is a genuine fade candidate this week, a POD play in reverse.
Lachie Neale (Lions v Cats) · Pred: 118
The Cats rank 14th for midfielder concede, a genuine headwind that explains why Neale sits seventh among primetime midfielders.
The tagging picture is more favourable than it might appear. Neale copped the Mullin tag in Round 10 with limited effect, but the expectation is that Mullin's attention shifts to Ashcroft this week, who has been the more damaging Lion in recent rounds. Atkins may go head-to-head with Neale but is unlikely to apply a hard tag, and O'Connor's role as a tagger has become increasingly infrequent. The matchup is the primary concern; if it were neutral, Neale's CBA rate makes him an easy selection.
Rucks
Brodie Grundy (Swans v Bulldogs) · Pred: 115 | Tim English (Bulldogs v Swans) · Pred: 105
Both sides of the Swans v Bulldogs game produce the two standout ruck options in primetime this round and they will be near-universal selections.
Grundy draws the better end of the matchup. The Bulldogs rank fourth for ruck concede overall (+10.9%), first in the competition for hitouts conceded to rucks (+28.7%) and +11.4% above average for tackles (#5). His predicted score of 115 reflects a matchup that suits him across every relevant stat.
English mirrors the logic from the other side. The Swans rank fifth for ruck concede overall (+6.9%), with hitouts below average (#13, -11.1%) but tackles +18.6% above average (#3). His predicted score of 105 reflects a solid overall matchup despite the tougher hitout environment.
The one POD angle worth flagging is Lachlan McAndrew (Crows v Eagles, pred: 96). The Eagles rank first for ruck concede, conceding an average of 98.5 points to opposition rucks this season, well above the league average of 80.8. Hitouts, kicks and marks are all well above average. If you want to differentiate from the field this week, McAndrew is the play.
Forwards
Izak Rankine (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 114
The top-ranked primetime forward for the round. Since returning from injury, Rankine has attended 74% and 50% of CBAs across his last two games, a significant role share that underpins his predicted score. His last three CBA sits at 61.7%, up 16.7 percentage points on his 45.3% season average, reflecting a role that is growing as he builds back to full fitness.
The Eagles rank second for forward concede on external data, with marks conceded at +8.3% (#4) and tackles at +4.7% (#4) as the key positives. The most likely scenario has the Hough tag going to Dawson rather than Rankine, which keeps his ceiling clear. The matchup, the role and the form trajectory all point the same way.
Josh Rachele (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 103
Rachele shares the same Eagles matchup as Rankine and is the lesser of the two Adelaide forward picks. His CBA has dropped significantly in recent weeks, down to 10.7% across the last three games from a 33.2% season average, reflecting his transition into a more dedicated goal-kicking forward role rather than a midfield one. That role change limits his ceiling compared to Rankine.
That said, the lack of quality forward options in primetime means Rachele is one you more or less have to consider, with the upside that if he does get more mid time, the Eagles matchup is there to capitalise.
Alex Neal-Bullen (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 94
The same Eagles matchup logic applies. Neal-Bullen ranks 12th for tackles among forwards in the competition and fifth among Adelaide players: the Eagles rank fourth for tackles conceded to forwards (+4.7%), which is a direct positive for his scoring profile. A depth selection driven by the matchup and the absence of better primetime options.
Riley Thilthorpe (Crows v Eagles) · Pred: 94
The Eagles rank first for ruck concede and Thilthorpe has been attending 18.7% of CBAs across the last three games, meaning he picks up scoring from multiple avenues: forward contests, marks, and some ruck involvement. He scores +9.9 points per game on average when Darcy Fogarty is also in the team compared to when he isn't, and with Fogarty named this week that box is ticked.
Zac Bailey (Lions v Cats) · Pred: 101
Bailey's season average carries him above some of the less appealing options at forward spots six and seven, but there are genuine concerns this week. The Cats rank 11th for forward concede (-4.8%) and 14th for midfielder concede. Neither is a positive matchup whichever way his role falls. There is also potential for O'Connor to drift to him, although O'Connor has not been tagging regularly in recent weeks.
The honest assessment: Bailey is prone to an off night and this is the kind of matchup where that risk is elevated. If you are looking for a POD play at forward six or seven, this is a week to consider alternatives over him.
Jeremy Cameron (Cats v Lions) · Pred: 101
Cameron and Mannagh are both difficult selections this week, another case of limited options rather than compelling matchups. The Lions rank 13th for forward concede and 13th for goals conceded to forwards, making this one of the tougher forward environments in the primetime pool. Cameron's season average gets him into the side, but the ceiling is capped by both the matchup and recent form (five-game average of 80).
If you have POD options available at forward six or seven, this is a week to consider them over the Geelong pair.
Shaun Mannagh (Cats v Lions) · Pred: 87
Mannagh shares the same tough Lions matchup as Cameron. The added concern is a role dependency: he averages 6.7 points less per game when Miers is not in the side compared to when he is. With Miers' availability worth monitoring, that is a flag worth checking before lockout. Like Cameron, he is here because the primetime forward pool is thin rather than because the matchup or role is particularly inviting.