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Quick word on every call, position by position.
Hooker
Robson — wasn't a clean call. A week ago I'd have leaned Pascoe, but with Verrills back in the side his minutes look set to get squeezed, and that's a big downgrade. Robson's in much the same boat with Connor Watson around. He got benched in the role three weeks back, Watson started, and Robson came away with just 40 minutes. Both are role-uncertain, but I'm taking Robson as the likelier of the two to land the bigger minutes.
Middle
Willison — has kept right on impressing, and it's the lock role that's done it. Across his starts at No. 13 he's averaging 70 minutes a game for an average of 77 points (79, 80 and 72). That's absolutely outstanding, and exactly why he tops the squad.
Haas — no overthinking this one, and it's nothing to do with big minutes. He's arguably the best middle forward in the game and you pick him on that alone. The numbers turn up when he plays (82 and 54 in his last two), but the case here is pure class.
Curran — a very sneaky POD play, and one I'm comfortable making. The main pull is his record in this role at the Bulldogs. In his last three games starting in the second row he's averaged 55, so the floor here is safe enough, and he's got the try-scoring in him to tack on extra points through attacking stats. The matchup is a nice bonus on top. The Titans got carved up by an edge forward only last week, leaking 69 to Liam Martin in R16, so they've shown they can be got at out there. I like that he's named to start on the edge, just keep half an eye on late changes with Jacob Preston lurking on the bench. Curran scored 51.7 off the interchange last week, and with how the Bulldogs' bench shapes up I reckon he's primed for the full 80.
Edge
Wong — averaging 52 across the season, though the form's tailed off lately. Since Round 9 he's down to 49. I've still got this as a prime bounce-back spot, especially with the Roosters having snapped their losing run last week. The kicker is the matchup. The Broncos are leaking the second-most points to right-edge forwards in the comp at 55 a game. It was a tough call between him and Arama Hau from the Titans, but I'm landing on Wong here.
Aitken — quietly one of the most reliable edge forwards going, 60-plus in three of his last five, the only blip coming when he got shifted to the bench in R14. He's more than likely to get the full 80 now too, with Tallis Duncan moving into the centres and freeing up the edge. Reliable as they come.
Halves
Campbell — flying. 72 in R16, 66 in R14, 70 in R12. The five-eighth role at the Titans is putting the ball in his hands every set and the numbers love it. He's head and shoulders the best half available to pick from this week, so this one's the easiest lock going.
Walker — the boom-or-bust play, and the swings say it all (a -10 in R13, an 80 in R14). He keeps going from strength to strength, and while he can still lay an egg, I love the narrative this week. He's in front of the Suncorp crowd ahead of Origin Game 3, and that's exactly where I reckon you see him in his element. He didn't have a big one last week, but I'm backing a bounce-back.
Centre
Toia — set and forget for me this week. He's averaging 54 across his last five and he's been a model of reliability, with a low of 45, a high of 63, all at 80 minutes. He's crossed in two of those five, including a double against the Titans back in R10. Even before any attacking output he's banking around 35 in base points a game, about 32 once you factor the missed tackles, which gives him a floor most centres can only dream of. A genuinely good all-round centre, and an easy inclusion.
Crichton — the second centre was the tough one, and there's not much in it. I wasn't a big fan of the matchups for Kotoni Staggs or Billy Smith on paper, with both opposing edges keeping those positions quiet. What swings me to Crichton is his move to five-eighth last week. He put up 52 in the role. That was a try, a couple of goals and a field goal, more tackles than he was making in the centres (21), and roughly 17 points through his kicking metres alone. The running metres fell away to just 26, which is the one concern, and he managed no line breaks or tackle breaks, so he's not that creative-half type just yet. But the No. 6 job gives him a steadier base with real scoring upside, and the Titans defence has been there to be got at times this year. It might read as the spicy pick, but that playmaking role is what earns him the nod.
Wing
Nawaqanitawase — one of the best wingers in the game right now, and an absolute star. Nine tries across his last five games, twelve for the season, and he's as reliable as he is explosive. Bar one quiet 34 against the Panthers, he hasn't gone below 42 in a full game all year. He's absolutely flying, and for mine the best winger going around.
Johnston — the other wing spot was a coin flip, but I've landed on Johnston, and he's been a stud. He's off the back of a four-try haul, averaging 55 for the season, has crossed in every game bar one, and has dipped below 50 only four times all year. The matchup helps too. The Eels are leaking 47 to the left wing this season, right where he lines up. The other option was Jacob Kiraz, but he's got only a middle-of-the-road matchup against the Titans, and he looks hobbled with a calf at the moment, so there's a longevity worry over him too. Johnston, by contrast, is the form man who can go boom any time. Genuinely a coin flip, but I'm on Alex, for the better matchup and his try-scoring.
Fullback
Tedesco — gets the fullback nod, and he's a set-and-forget for me. His form through the middle wasn't pretty, failing to clear 40 in any of his three games between Rounds 11 and 14, but he bounced back with a 51 against the Sharks last week. He hasn't crossed for a try since Round 10 either, so he's well overdue. He's exactly the type in this primetime competition you don't fade, because he can go big at any moment, just look at the 118 he dropped on the Knights back in R7. An auto pick for mine.
Bench
Nat Butcher — a little bit of a spicy pick, and he's flown under the radar this year, mainly because he hasn't been a pickable option stuck on the interchange. But he's started twice in the second row this season and averaged 53 (57 and 50), and the base is outstanding, with 50 tackles a game, just over 75 run metres, and only one missed tackle across both games. He's low on demerits and high on base, and starting in the second row generally means a full 80, where he piles up the tackles. The kicker is the upside. His only attacking stat across those two games was a single offload, so there's plenty of room for more. This could be a really good week to play him.
Murray — Mister Consistent, and in spectacular touch. Across his eleven games at lock he's gone as high as 60 and as low as 28, with only two games under 50. He's at his best at lock, where he's averaged 51 but has had the odd quiet game when he's shifted to the second row. With a few PODs already in the squad, Murray rounds it off nicely. It's all about balancing those points-of-difference with consistent players who reliably hit their base, and that's exactly what he is. There are flashier options out there, but for his consistency Murray is a genuinely safe pick who'll do a job for anyone's squad this week.
Galvin — the underrated one on this bench, and the kid's been superb, posting 53, 71, 46, 73 and 61 across his last five. A lot of people reckon he's propped up by his try-scoring, and there's something to that, but it doesn't hold up all the way. In five of his eight games without a try he's still cleared 50, so he racks up a score whether he crosses or not. That's because he's banking around 40 in base points a game from his tackles, run metres and kick metres, even with the missed tackles docked. It was a toss-up between him, Mitchell Moses and Daly Cherry-Evans, but Galvin gets the nod. He's the steadier option with the higher floor, and he's the least likely of the three to burn you. Not much in it, but he's the play.
Siegwalt — the one I'm most interested in as a POD, and there's real upside here. He's filling in at centre on the Bunnies' left edge with Latrell Mitchell out, and the Eels happen to be the third-best matchup going for left centres. He's averaging just over 51 for the season. Interestingly, he's yet to score a try or make a line break all year, with only a few tackle breaks, and just 23 of his points come through tackles and run metres. What carries him is the goal kicking. He's banking 15 a game off the tee alone. So if he crosses for a try, you're suddenly looking at a 60-point game. When plenty of others go with the popular picks this week, I reckon Siegwalt's a very good POD play.
Walsh — the big bench weapon, and an auto pick alongside Teddy. He hasn't played in over three weeks, with his Origin commitments and the Broncos' bye keeping him out, so he'll be well rested and coming in with a point to prove. Looking at the Broncos lineup I reckon he may pick up the kicking duties this week, which is an extra boost, and with the Broncos out of form he's the man to drag them back into it. This could well be a Walsh game. He dropped 73 in R14 and the ceiling's as high as anyone's in the squad.
