Twal — the workhorse of the pack and every bit as safe as his mate May. He is averaging 64 across his last five and hasn't gone under 47 in any game he has finished this year, which for a middle is outrageous consistency. The tackle counts do the heavy lifting, sitting in the 50s most weeks, so the base is about as bankable as it comes.
Clark — the sneakier middle pick, and it comes with a minutes caveat. He is averaging 49 for the year but is only getting 50 to 60 minutes at lock, so the ceiling is a touch capped compared to the two Tigers props. Still, he banks a heap through his tackles and metres, hit 72 back in R7, and gives you a steady body in the middle.
Edge
Laban — a genuine POD, and the form since he locked down a starting spot backs it up. Across his last five he is averaging 46 and cracked 68 in R12, all off the back of playing the full 80 in the second row. The one blot is the R16 stinker, an 8 with eight missed tackles, so the demerits can bite. But the base is there when he is on, and he is a nice point of difference on this edge.
Halasima — the spicy pick of the squad, and it is all about the ceiling. He is confirmed starting, which is the main thing, because his recent numbers were poor before he went out, averaging just 25 across his last five with a lot of quiet games. But you only need to remember the 74 he dropped in R2, with a double, to know what he can do when he goes boom. A full 80 in the second row gives him the platform, so this is a roll of the dice on upside rather than a safe play.
Halves
Martin — a set and forget, and the pick of the three halves available. He has been flying since he took over the halfback role, averaging 59 across his last five, crossing for four tries in that stretch, and going as high as 76 in R12. He puts the ball down himself and racks up the kicking metres, so both the floor and the upside are strong. Easy lock.
Harris-Tavita — a set and forget rather than a tough call, purely because he is one of only three named halves in this game to pick from. The form is down, averaging 33 for the year and 32 across his last five, and while he pumps out big kicking metres week to week that isn't turning into the points you want. But with the pool this thin he is an automatic inclusion.
Centre
Doueihi — the big score in the squad, and worth flagging he carries a centre designation in GDS even though he plays in the halves for the Tigers. That is a bonus for us, because his output is pure playmaker, averaging 68 across the games he has played with a monster 102 in R8. The goal kicking and the kicking metres do the heavy lifting, so the floor is huge before he does anything else. A genuine points-of-difference weapon in the outside backs slot.
Pompey — the main reason he gets the nod over the other centres available is the goal kicking. With the Warriors' regular kicker out injured, he has taken over the duties, banking five conversions in R16 and four in R17, and that gives him a bump and a little more upside than the rest of the centre options. He is only averaging 28 for the year, so this is a role play more than a form one, but the boot lifts his floor above the other centres in the pool.
Wing
Turuva — a name pick more than a form pick right now. He is averaging just 20 across his last five and has been shunted between wing and centre, which hasn't helped. The reminder is the 92 he posted in R6 with a hat-trick, so the try-scoring ceiling is real, but he is a coin flip on any given week at the moment.
Skelton — boom or bust, and the swings tell the story. He went 74 in R13 with a double, then followed it with a 10, an 18 and a 16. He is averaging 28 across his last five, so he is entirely reliant on getting over the line, but he runs big metres and can go large the moment he scores. The matchup helps this week too, with him likely on the right wing up against Alofiana Khan-Pereira, who has been known to leak in defence and let a few through, so there is genuine try-scoring upside on that side.
Fullback
Tuaupiki — gets the fullback nod and he is the most reliable of the back-three options here. He is averaging 48 for the year and 48 across his last five, with a high of 77, and he racks up the metres and tackle breaks every week from the back. He has the try-scoring in him too, so the ceiling is there on top of a solid base. Warriors are coming off the bye, so he should be fresh.
Bench
Fisher-Harris — a strong body and he is confirmed starting, which is exactly what you want. He is averaging 48 for the year and 49 across his last five, tops out around 61, and does the lot for you through his tackles, metres and offloads. He hasn't played since R13, so there is a small returning-from-a-layoff angle, but a starting front-rower back in the side is a good pick up here.
Samuela Fainu — a real POD, and one of the better forwards available to take one of these forward spots. Before injury earlier this season he was flying, averaging 54 across seven games with a high of 77 and a couple of tries. He is returning from injury so there is risk here, mainly around whether he gets through the full 80, but the base was excellent when he was in the side and if he plays out the game in the second row the points look after themselves.
Luai — one of only three named halves in this game, so like the other two he is a set and forget by default rather than a tough call. He is the wildest ride of the trio though. His last five reads 41, then a 0.4, then a 94 with a hat-trick, then 61, then 17, so you truly do not know what you are getting. Averaging 40 for the year, but that 94 in R15 is the reminder of the ceiling.
Nicoll-Klokstad — the utility value pick, and the flexibility helps. He has covered fullback, centre and wing this year, has eight tries to his name, and dropped an 85 in R16 when he grabbed four on the wing. He is averaging 42, so he is not going to blow the roof off most weeks, but he rounds out the squad with a body who can go big off a couple of tries.
Bula — returned from injury around R13 and has averaged 33 in the games since. The reason he is in the squad is simple. Once the obvious picks are gone, he offers the highest ceiling of the players left to choose from. He still runs plenty of metres from the back and hit 74 back in R6, so if he clicks the upside is there.
