Yeo — the safe one in the middle. He's a model of reliability at lock, averaging 53 with a season low of 42 and no genuine blowups all year. He won't win you the week on his own, but he'll do a job every time and gives the squad a rock-solid floor.
Nat Butcher — a bit of an under-the-radar pick, and the case is in his second-row numbers. Across his four games starting in the back row this season he's averaged 52, well above his overall figure, and he's held that starting gig in his recent appearances. The base tackling is outstanding and the demerits are low. There's extra appeal this week too, with the look of the Roosters bench leaning on a couple of edge forwards and utility players rather than big-bodied middles, he could well go the full 80 and pick up time in the middle rotation on top of his edge minutes.
Edge
Lucas — one of the form edge forwards in the competition and the standout of this squad. He's averaging 64 for the year, has only dropped below 50 points twice all season, and has cleared 60 in every game since Round 11. The tackle count sits around 45 a game and he's added the try-scoring on top. He's in as hot a run as you'll find, and he's the first name in the pack this week.
Aitken — a real boom edge. His base alone is worth around 50 in an 80-minute outing, and he adds try-scoring and line-break upside on top of that. In his four full 80-minute games this season he's averaged 68, so with another one looming he shapes as a set-and-forget for Primetime this week.
Halves
Cleary — the easiest lock in the squad. He's averaging 74, head and shoulders the best half you can pick this week, and the goal kicking gives him a floor nobody else in the position can match. He's cleared 90 five times this year. He's coming off a rare 27 last week, his lowest of the season, but I wouldn't read much into a one-off. You don't overthink Nathan.
Hughes — the risky one this week. There's genuine boom in him and a big kicking game with a high of 75, and on paper the matchup looks a good one. The catch is fitness and form: he missed last week with a hamstring injury and is coming back off it this week, and his last two outings were down at 22 and 31, so there's a real question over where he's at. The flip side is the matchup. The Rabbitohs are missing a big chunk of their forward pack this week, which could leave some forwards filling roles or positions they're not used to, and Hughes may well find room to move against a reshuffled Souths side. The upside is there, but so is the risk.
Centre
Best — a bit of a spicy pick at centre, and it's all about the ceiling. He's averaging 43 but the swings tell the story, with a 79 to his name earlier in the year, so when he crosses he goes big. The concern is the matchup. The Roosters are a tough draw for left centres, and with Robert Toia at right centre they've allowed only three scores of 50 or more in that role all year. Can Best clear it? With a ceiling that big, absolutely, but this Roosters right edge has been hard to crack at times, so there's genuine risk in the pick.
Toia — the steadier centre option. He's averaging 50 with a nice bit of consistency, 53 across his last five, and he's got the try-scoring in him too. The one concern is the matchup. Right centres have averaged just 28 against Newcastle over their last ten games, though the Knights haven't come up against many of the competition's best in that run. Toia might be the toughest right centre they've faced in recent weeks, arguably the pick of the position right now, so he's far from a write-off. But it's not the easiest matchup, and there's a bit of risk attached even for a player who's been this steady all year.
Wing
Faalogo — flying, and the fact he's getting the fullback job for the Storm is exactly why he scores like this. He's averaging 61 for the season with a high of 100, and the huge run metres, line breaks and try involvement come week after week. He's coming off a quieter 39 last week, but the body of work is strong.
Jenkins — the try machine. He's averaging 60 with a high of 97, and the ceiling is enormous, with multiple doubles this year and even a four-try haul back in R3. He can go quiet, but you're picking him for the upside, and there's a heap of it.
Fullback
Ponga — the fullback nod and an auto pick. He's averaging 66, one of the best scoring fullbacks in the game with the goal kicking, running game and try-scoring all in the mix. He's coming off back-to-back returns of 66 and 62 and has a high of 96.
Bench
Wong — the bounce-back edge. He's averaging 52 for the season but has been quieter lately, and I've got him as a prime rebound candidate given what he's shown before, with a high of 72. He crossed for a try last week, so the base and the attacking involvement are there. The matchup is a big tick too. The Knights have been the best matchup going for right edge forwards over the last five weeks, allowing an average of 63 to the position and conceding three tries in that time, so there's huge upside for Wong here and every chance he finds the try line again.
Koloamatangi — right in form. He's averaging 47 across the whole season but 62 over his last five, off the back of a 79 a few weeks ago. He's locked into big minutes up front now and racking up huge run metres, north of 200 in a few recent games, so the base is strong and trending the right way.
Brown — a hot half worth a look. He's averaging 53 for the year but has found real consistency lately, with his last three all landing between 58 and 64, and he owns a monster ceiling with a 102 already on the board. The running game and kicking metres give him plenty of ways to score. The one thing worth noting is he hasn't fired against the Roosters this year, his 32 back in Round 7 was his second-lowest score of the season, though to be fair he was returning from injury that week.
Tedesco — I'm expecting a big game here. He owns one of the biggest ceilings of any fullback going, a monstrous 118 already on the board this year to go with a season average of 56. He's missed the last couple of weeks after failing an HIA during Origin, so he comes into this one fresh, and I'm expecting him raring to go. The upside is enormous.
Edwards — about as safe as they come. He's averaging 58 with the huge run metres every week doing the heavy lifting, a 100 shows the ceiling, and he rarely gives you a genuine dud. A model of consistency.
