Season Tracker
Through 15 rounds, we're sitting at +53.88 units for the season. Round 15 added +4.40 with four wins from five Best Bets. The Sharks getting up outright in Auckland and the Dolphins running riot over the Roosters were the highlights, while the Rabbitohs vs Broncos under 50.5 was the only miss after Souths put 48 on a depleted Brisbane. The overall record now reads 75-38 (66.37%), and we're well in the green heading into the back end of the season.
The club competition pauses for Origin, and there's no bigger stage to be on. New South Wales lead the series 1-0 after one of the great Game 1 comebacks, hauling themselves back from 18-0 down to win 22-20 at Accor. Game 2 is at the MCG and it's do or die for Queensland. One game tonight and a Best Bet on it. Here's how I'm reading it.
New South Wales vs Queensland
vs 
Queensland have edged the recent ledger, winning 6 of the last 10 Origin matches against the Blues. Across those ten games the average total has been 38.2 points, and the contests have swung hard, from Queensland's 32-6 demolition in 2023 to New South Wales putting 38 on the Maroons at this very ground in 2024. That 2024 MCG meeting is the most recent piece of Melbourne history to lean on, and it went the Blues' way 38-18 in front of 90,084. Tonight is the seventh Origin played at the MCG, and the ground has been Blues territory for a long time. New South Wales hold a 5-1 record there, with Queensland's only win coming over thirty years ago, the 20-12 result back in 1995.
Game 1 is the frame for everything tonight. Queensland were the better side for an hour, racing to 18-0 behind Toia, Flegler and Tabuai-Fidow with Walker pulling the strings on debut. The match turned in the 57th minute when Kalyn Ponga was sent off for a shoulder charge on Tolutau Koula, leaving the Maroons to play the final 23 minutes a man down. New South Wales took full advantage, Cleary controlling the back end and Tedesco crashing over off a kick with the clock in the red to steal it 22-20. Queensland will feel they let a winnable opener slip, and they come to Melbourne knowing a loss ends the series.
The team sheets have moved plenty since Sydney. Queensland get Reece Walsh back into the squad after he missed the opener. New South Wales welcome two key men back from injury, with Payne Haas returning in the middle and Mitchell Moses slotting in at five-eighth next to Nathan Cleary, a halves pairing that has combined before. There are Origin debuts for Dylan Lucas in the second row and code-hopper Mark Nawaqanitawase on the wing. Stephen Crichton is the big out with a shoulder issue, and with Casey McLean also ruled out at training, the Blues have reshuffled the backline, Tolutau Koula shifting into the centres to cover.
That backline shuffle is where I keep landing. With Crichton out, both edges have been reshaped, and we'll likely see Koula and To'o down the left with Staggs and Nawaqanitawase on the right. Those fresh combinations across the backline are the area Queensland will want to test, and it shapes as a real battle out wide. Up front the packs are close to even. I like the Blues forward pack, even more with Haas back in it, and the bench could prove decisive either way, whether that's a spark off the Queensland pine or Ethan Strange getting his run for the Blues. Both sides are well matched, as they always are in this arena, but I just think there is a little more in this one for Queensland.
I'll declare my hand here, I'm a New South Wales fan, and even so I can't talk myself into the Blues closing this out tonight. Queensland have shown time and again what they are capable of when their backs are against the wall. That Maroons character is real, and it tends to surface in exactly these spots, a proud side asked to keep a series alive. They dig deep when it matters and they have done it for years.
Game 1 only sharpens the point. The Maroons were the better team for an hour and led 18-0 before the Ponga send-off flipped the contest. Letting a lead like that slip, in a game they had controlled, leaves a side with plenty to prove. The history backs the bounce-back as well, with just three of the last ten Game Twos won by the team that took Game 1. I expect them to come out with real edge tonight and drag this back to a decider at Suncorp, where they would want nothing more than to finish the job at home. Queensland to win at $1.92 is the play, and I'm happy to go 2.5 units on it.
I also like a couple of tryscorer angles, both on Jojo Fifita. The aerial game is the part that interests me most. Sam Walker has a strong kicking game and loves to put the high ball up, something he sharpened alongside Nawaqanitawase at the Roosters. The two are on opposite sides tonight, Walker steering Queensland and Nawaqanitawase debuting for the Blues, but Walker's habit of peppering the right edge travels with him. With Fifita stationed on Queensland's right, he is well placed to climb and finish on the end of those kicks. New centre and wing combinations can be uncertain in defence early on too, and that tends to open up space out wide. Fifita has the leap and timing to make the most of it.
The venue backs it in. Wingers score plenty at the MCG, with five of the ten tries in the 2024 game here coming from the flanks. Fifita is only into his second Origin and is actually the longest-priced winger on the board. If that is meant to reflect the fact not one Queensland winger crossed in Game 1, then for mine it only adds to the value. He is the best value winger in this game, and he is flying under the radar.
At $2.55 for anytime tryscorer that is a one unit play, and I'll sprinkle half a unit on him to open the scoring at $12 for first tryscorer.
One more angle I like is the highest scoring half, and the first half is where the value sits. It surprised me when I dug into it, but in 7 of the last 10 Origin games the opening 40 has been the higher-scoring half, including five of the last six. Game 1 followed the script, 26 points before the break and only 16 after, though the Ponga send-off had plenty to do with how the second half slowed. Both these sides tend to come out firing and tighten up through the back end, and with another fast start on the cards I'm happy to take the first half at $2.20.
On the total and the margin, I'm staying off both. The line sits at 42.5 and I lean over, I'm expecting a fast paced game and the last two Game Twos have sailed past this number, but it is no more than a lean. The margin is a no bet as well, and that is no knock on Queensland, I'm happy backing them to win. The margin is simply its own question. Game Twos have tended to be one-sided lately, five of the last six decided by 13 or more, but whether the Maroons edge this one or pull clear is not something I can call with any confidence. Both stay off the staking sheet.
The Bets
- Best Bet: Queensland Head to Head $1.92 (2.5 units)
- Jojo Fifita Anytime Tryscorer $2.55 (1 unit)
- Jojo Fifita First Tryscorer $12.00 (0.5 units)
- Highest Scoring Half, First Half $2.20 (1 unit)