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Defenders
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Saints v Power) · Pred: 133 · Avg: 132
NWM walks in on form. Port Adelaide rank 13th for defender concede at -3.3% — a mild negative overall — but goals conceded to opposition defenders at +19.0% (3rd) is the relevant positive for the way NWM scores. Kicks at -5.4% (15th) is the significant headwind; his game runs through contested possession and ball-winning rather than pure kick volume. No tag. Starts.
Lachie Ash (Giants v Cats) · Pred: 130 · Avg: 127
Geelong rank 8th for defender concede at +1.8%. Handballs at +11.3% (2nd) and tackles at +10.1% (2nd) are the standout positives — Ash generates heavily through short disposal and contested ball-winning and this matchup feeds it directly. Marks at -8.3% (14th) is the only notable negative. His prediction of 130 is 2.4% above his season average of 127.
Archie Roberts (Bombers v Lions) · Pred: 121 · Avg: 129
Brisbane rank 18th (last) for defender concede at -11.3% — kicks at -11.6% (17th), marks at -25.0% (18th). Roberts's prediction of 121 is 6.2% below his season average of 129, the full matchup discount applied. Named after a doubtful week with his shoulder. Selected on season average alone; the most volatile pick in the defensive group.
John Noble (Suns v Crows) · Pred: 121 · Avg: 121
Adelaide rank 11th for defender concede at -2.6% — neutral-to-negative overall. The standout positive is goals at +41.6% (2nd) — the Crows are one of the most generous teams in the competition for defender goals. Noble's prediction matches his season average exactly at 121. Consistent. Named.
Josh Daicos (Magpies v Kangaroos) · Pred: 113 · Avg: 115
North Melbourne rank 17th for defender concede at -9.3% — kicks at -12.7% (18th) the most damaging stat for Daicos's kick-heavy game. His prediction of 113 is 1.7% below his season average of 115. Selected on season average depth; the matchup is a headwind he'll need to overcome through volume. Named.
James Sicily (Hawks v Blues) · Pred: 112 · Avg: 109
Carlton rank 12th for defender concede at -2.8% — broadly neutral across all stats. Sicily's prediction of 112 is 2.8% above his season average of 109, mild recent form upside. Named.
Darcy Wilmot (Lions v Bombers) · Pred: 111 · Avg: 106
The standout matchup upgrade in the defensive line. Essendon rank 3rd for defender concede at +6.8% — kicks at +8.1% (2nd) and marks at +19.5% (2nd) are excellent for Wilmot's disposal-and-intercept game. His prediction of 111 is 4.7% above his season average of 106. Named.
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Midfielders
Bailey Smith (Cats v Giants) · Pred: 144 · Avg: 143
GWS rank 12th for midfielder concede at -1.5% — a mild negative. Handballs at +6.9% (2nd) is the clear positive for Smith's running, contested game. Kicks at -3.3% (15th) and marks at -7.0% (13th) are the negatives. Selection built on volume and CBA access. At 144 predicted off a season average of 143, the model is simply backing him to be Bailey Smith.
Jordan Dawson (Crows v Suns) · Pred: 144 · Avg: 138
Gold Coast rank 6th for midfielder concede at +1.0%. Goals conceded at +37.1% (2nd) is the headline — the Suns allow more goals to opposition midfielders than virtually any team in the competition. Dawson converts possession into score involvement at a high rate and this matchup feeds it directly. His prediction of 144 is 4.3% above his season average of 138.
Isaac Heeney (Swans v Dockers) · Pred: 127 · Avg: 127
Fremantle rank 17th for midfielder concede at -3.6% — marks at -20.8% (18th) the most damaging stat for Heeney's scoring profile. The model backs his season average of 127 against the matchup discount, with tackles at +10.3% (3rd) the genuine positive. Named after a doubtful week.
Max Holmes (Cats v Giants) · Pred: 126 · Avg: 123
Shares the Giants matchup with Bailey Smith — handballs at +6.9% (2nd) the main positive. His prediction of 126 is 2.4% above his season average of 123. The same matchup logic applies a tier below Smith. Named.
Ed Richards (Bulldogs v Eagles) · Pred: 124 · Avg: 121
The best midfielder matchup on the board. West Coast rank 2nd for midfielder concede at +4.6% — kicks at +5.0% (2nd), marks at +6.9% (6th), tackles at +8.1% (4th), goals at +27.9% (4th). Every accumulation stat above league average. Richards's prediction of 124 is 2.5% above his season average of 121. Named.
Zach Merrett (Bombers v Lions) · Pred: 123 · Avg: 128
Brisbane rank 4th for midfielder concede at +3.6%. Goals conceded at +39.1% (1st) — the Lions allow more goals to opposition midfielders than any team in the competition. Merrett's prediction of 123 sits 3.9% below his season average of 128, mild form discount against an excellent matchup. Named.
Zak Butters (Power v Saints) · Pred: 121 · Avg: 126
St Kilda rank 15th for midfielder concede at -3.0% — kicks at -6.0% (17th) the main negative for Butters's kick-heavy game. His prediction of 121 is 3.9% below his season average of 126. Earns his spot on season average depth; the Saints matchup is working against him. Named.
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Rucks
Max Gawn (Demons v Tigers) · Pred: 125 · Avg: 125
Richmond rank 7th for ruck concede at +6.1% — marks at +20.3% (3rd) and tackles at +17.3% (3rd) the headline positives. Goals at +85.0% (3rd) is eye-catching though ruck goal numbers are small in absolute terms. Gawn's prediction matches his season average of 125. Named. Straightforward.
Luke Jackson (Dockers v Swans) · Pred: 118 · Avg: 122
Sydney rank 9th for ruck concede at -1.5% — effectively neutral. Goals at +66.5% (4th), handballs at +6.5% (6th) and tackles at +5.6% (9th) are mild positives. His prediction of 118 is 3.3% below his season average of 122. Sean Darcy managed out — Jackson is the undisputed #1 Fremantle ruck and gets all the premium minutes. Named.
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Forwards
Harry Sheezel (Kangaroos v Magpies) · Pred: 130 · Avg: 134
Collingwood rank 6th for forward concede at +1.9% — kicks at +6.0% (2nd), handballs at +5.6% (3rd), marks at +6.5% (4th) all positive. Tackles at -18.6% (18th) is the one notable caveat — the Magpies are the hardest team in the competition for forwards to generate tackles against — but Sheezel's disposal-and-mark game doesn't depend on it. When he pushes through the midfield, the Magpies rank 11th for midfielder concede at -0.5% — broadly neutral, with marks at +11.4% (3rd) and kicks at +3.2% (5th) remaining positive. Named. Leads the forward line.
Kysaiah Pickett (Demons v Tigers) · Pred: 123 · Avg: 116
The best forward matchup on the board. Richmond rank 1st for forward concede at +11.2% — kicks at +11.6% (1st), handballs at +8.8% (2nd), marks at +20.2% (1st). Every accumulation stat above league average. When Pickett pushes through the midfield, the Tigers rank 9th for midfielder concede at -0.3% — effectively neutral overall, though marks at +18.9% (2nd) remain an exceptional positive. Pickett's prediction of 123 is 6.0% above his season average of 116. Named.
Zac Bailey (Lions v Bombers) · Pred: 116 · Avg: 102
Essendon rank 2nd for forward concede at +5.4% — handballs at +9.3% (1st), marks at +12.2% (3rd), kicks at +5.4% (4th). The Bombers are permissive across every key forward accumulation stat. The midfield numbers are even better — Essendon rank 1st for midfielder concede at +8.9%, with kicks at +10.9% (1st) and marks at +37.8% (1st). When Bailey floats through the midfield he finds the most generous scoring environment in the competition. His prediction of 116 is 13.7% above his season average of 102 — the largest absolute premium in the forward group. Named.
Izak Rankine (Crows v Suns) · Pred: 107 · Avg: 109
Gold Coast rank 5th for forward concede at +2.3% — goals at +6.9% (4th) and marks at +3.5% (6th) the most relevant positives for Rankine's scoring profile. Through the midfield the Suns rank 6th at +1.0% for midfielder concede, with goals at +37.1% (2nd) — the Suns allow goals to opposing midfielders at a rate that makes Rankine's goal-kicking upside even more compelling when he pushes into the middle. His prediction of 107 is 1.8% below his season average of 109. Named.
Bradley Hill (Saints v Power) · Pred: 104 · Avg: 105
Port Adelaide rank 10th for forward concede at +0.2% — essentially neutral overall. The standout positive is tackles at +16.1% (1st) — the Power are the hardest team in the competition to avoid being tackled by, which suits Hill's contested game directly. Through the midfield Port rank 16th at -3.5% for midfielder concede — a headwind, with marks at -11.9% (15th) notably soft. His prediction of 104 essentially matches his season average of 105. Named.
Toby Greene (Giants v Cats) · Pred: 101 · Avg: 104
Geelong rank 9th for forward concede at +1.2% — kicks at +2.2% (7th), marks at +3.1% (9th) mild positives. Through the midfield the Cats rank 10th at -0.4% — effectively neutral, with tackles at +7.9% (5th) the main positive when Greene wins contested ball through the middle. His prediction of 101 is 2.9% below his season average of 104. Named. Experience and goal-kicking upside provide his floor.
Tom Sparrow (Demons v Tigers) · Pred: 100 · Avg: 100
Shares the Tigers matchup with Pickett — Richmond 1st for forward concede at +11.2%, kicks at +11.6% (1st), marks at +20.2% (1st). Through the midfield the picture holds — Tigers rank 9th for midfielder concede at -0.3%, with marks at +18.9% (2nd) remaining a strong positive when Sparrow pushes through the centre. His prediction matches his season average of 100 exactly. Named.
