Season Tracker
Through 18 rounds and the State of Origin series, we're sitting at +57.11 units for the season, a record of 92-54 (63.0%) from 146 plays. Round 18 chipped in +1.90 from four winners on its six-play card, though State of Origin III pulled us back the other way. NSW took the decider 30-12 at Suncorp, so Queensland by 1-12 and the Queensland and Cobbo Same Game Multi both went down, and only Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's try kept it off a whitewash.
It's a short week back from Origin with the Broncos, Panthers and Dragons all on the bye, so there are seven games to work through. To get the weekend started, we head to Campbelltown on Friday night.
Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors
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The Warriors have owned this fixture, winning nine of the last ten meetings. The one that got away was the most recent, the Tigers going to Auckland back in Round 4 and winning 32-14. And for all that dominance, the favourite has covered just three of the last ten here, with the Warriors more often than not getting home by less than the number. They would have covered the current line in only two of the last five. It sits at Warriors -9.5, total 45.5.
The context is what makes this one interesting. The Tigers' season is hanging by a thread, twelfth on the ladder and four points outside the eight with the run home closing in. The Warriors are the mirror image, second and four points behind the Panthers. On paper that gap screams double figures. But the Tigers have lost three straight, the Warriors have won just one of their last three, and neither side has strung much together lately. If anything the Tigers lose experience from their spine this week, with captain and organiser Api Koroisau out injured and Josese Lanyon starting at hooker for the first time. James Fisher-Harris and Leka Halasima are both back to bolster the Warriors pack. Out wide, the Warriors have a reshuffle of their own, and their left edge has leaked at times this year. That could be the Tigers' way in.
I like the Tigers and the points. Nine and a half is a lot to lay for a side that wins without covering in this fixture, and it's a lot to give a home team with nothing to lose. The Tigers have actually been a respectable 9-7 against the line this year even as the results have gone against them, and a desperate side at home is exactly the spot where a big number gets stretched. The reason I'm not louder on it is the hooking spot, a debutant in Lanyon with no experience at this level. The rest of the spine is settled, both first-choice halves and the regular fullback in place, so it's only really at dummy-half that things look a touch makeshift. The line also looks like it's on the move. It's 9.5 now, but it could tick over to 10.5 closer to kick-off, so it's one to keep an eye on. I'm locking the 9.5 in because the picks have to go in now, but a better number may well appear before game time.
On the total, 45.5 looks low for a game with a double-digit favourite, and both these sides can put points on. But I don't have a strong feel. The head-to-head has actually gone over 45.5 in four of the last five, which cuts against the instinct, and the Friday-night unders sit at just 62% this year, a mild lean rather than a signal. Both teams are desperate, the Tigers to save a season and the Warriors to hold second, and desperate games tend to tighten up. If forced I'll side with the under, but it's a lean, not a play.
Best Bet: Wests Tigers +9.5 $1.96 (1 unit)