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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Prediction Round 27 2026
Who wins Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows? Our form-based model leans Brisbane Lions by 12-23. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Brisbane Lions by 12-23
Model score: Brisbane Lions 95–82 Adelaide Crows
Total points: the model's 177-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 4 meetings it is Brisbane Lions 2, Adelaide Crows 1 with 1 drawn, averaging 174 total points per game. Brisbane Lions have won 3 of their last 5. Adelaide Crows have won 2 of their last 5.
Last 4 meetings: Brisbane Lions 2, Adelaide Crows 1, 1 drawn, averaging 174 total points per game.
- 60–104 @ Sydney Swans14 Mar 2026
- 113–80 @ St Kilda Saints28 Mar 2026
- 119–65 v Collingwood Magpies2 Apr 2026
- 92–66 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos11 Apr 2026
- 102–104 @ Melbourne Demons19 Apr 2026
- 88–94 v Western Bulldogs20 Mar 2026
- 60–68 @ Geelong Cats26 Mar 2026
- 76–78 v Fremantle Dockers3 Apr 2026
- 114–86 v Carlton Blues9 Apr 2026
- 103–102 v St Kilda Saints18 Apr 2026
Brisbane Lions
- Lachie Neale
110.0 SC avg · 29.5 disposals · 0.2 goals · 5.4 marks (24 games)
- Will Ashcroft
106.0 SC avg · 28.3 disposals · 0.7 goals · 4.9 marks (24 games)
- Dayne Zorko
98.1 SC avg · 24.9 disposals · 0.2 goals · 6.4 marks (14 games)
- Zac Bailey
98.1 SC avg · 21.7 disposals · 1.4 goals · 5.5 marks (23 games)
Adelaide Crows
- Jordan Dawson
111.4 SC avg · 26.4 disposals · 1.1 goals · 5.2 marks (21 games)
- Izak Rankine
107.2 SC avg · 24.4 disposals · 1.2 goals · 4.2 marks (21 games)
- Wayne Milera
99.5 SC avg · 25.4 disposals · 0.1 goals · 6.0 marks (19 games)
- Sam Berry
97.2 SC avg · 22.2 disposals · 0.1 goals · 2.7 marks (23 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 27 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Brisbane Lions and Adelaide Crows team hubs.