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Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Match Analysis — AFL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Line-ball — too close to split
Model score: Brisbane Lions 93 — 91 Hawthorn Hawks
Total points: the model's 184-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 3 meetings it is Brisbane Lions 2, Hawthorn Hawks 1, averaging 165.3 total points per game. Brisbane Lions have won 3 of their last 5. Hawthorn Hawks have won 5 of their last 5.
Last 3 meetings: Brisbane Lions 2, Hawthorn Hawks 1 — averaging 165.3 total points per game.
- 60 — 104 @ Sydney Swans14 Mar 2026
- 113 — 80 @ St Kilda Saints28 Mar 2026
- 119 — 65 v Collingwood Magpies2 Apr 2026
- 92 — 66 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos11 Apr 2026
- 102 — 104 @ Melbourne Demons19 Apr 2026
- 145 — 83 @ Essendon Bombers13 Mar 2026
- 99 — 82 v Sydney Swans19 Mar 2026
- 92 — 91 v Geelong Cats6 Apr 2026
- 104 — 64 v Western Bulldogs11 Apr 2026
- 89 — 86 v Port Adelaide Power18 Apr 2026
Brisbane Lions
- Lachie Neale
109.5 SC avg · 30.4 disposals · 0.3 goals · 5.7 marks (19 games)
- Will Ashcroft
104.2 SC avg · 28.0 disposals · 0.6 goals · 5.1 marks (19 games)
- Zac Bailey
100.5 SC avg · 21.6 disposals · 1.6 goals · 5.4 marks (18 games)
- Dayne Zorko
97.0 SC avg · 25.2 disposals · 0.2 goals · 6.9 marks (10 games)
Hawthorn Hawks
- Jai Newcombe
101.5 SC avg · 26.1 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.1 marks (19 games)
- James Sicily
98.2 SC avg · 21.8 disposals · 0.1 goals · 7.5 marks (18 games)
- Will Day
95.4 SC avg · 22.3 disposals · 0.9 goals · 3.7 marks (7 games)
- Jarman Impey
88.2 SC avg · 23.8 disposals · 0.2 goals · 7.4 marks (17 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members — to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn Hawks team hubs.