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Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 23 2026
Who wins Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans? Our form-based model leans Sydney Swans by 12-23. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Sydney Swans by 12-23
Model score: Essendon Bombers 80–102 Sydney Swans
Total points: the model's 181-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 4 meetings it is Essendon Bombers 1, Sydney Swans 3, averaging 161.3 total points per game. Essendon Bombers have won 1 of their last 5. Sydney Swans have won 4 of their last 5.
Last 4 meetings: Essendon Bombers 1, Sydney Swans 3, averaging 161.3 total points per game.
- 70–133 @ Port Adelaide Power22 Mar 2026
- 69–81 v North Melbourne Kangaroos28 Mar 2026
- 65–99 @ Western Bulldogs5 Apr 2026
- 113–68 v Melbourne Demons11 Apr 2026
- 110–119 @ Gold Coast Suns18 Apr 2026
- 104–60 v Brisbane Lions14 Mar 2026
- 82–99 @ Hawthorn Hawks19 Mar 2026
- 163–35 @ West Coast Eagles4 Apr 2026
- 100–68 v Gold Coast Suns11 Apr 2026
- 107–66 v GWS Giants17 Apr 2026
Essendon Bombers
- Zach Merrett
106.6 SC avg · 26.5 disposals · 0.5 goals · 4.8 marks (20 games)
- Archie Roberts
100.7 SC avg · 28.5 disposals · 0.1 goals · 5.7 marks (18 games)
- Mason Redman
85.2 SC avg · 18.6 disposals · 0.2 goals · 5.4 marks (13 games)
- Sam Durham
84.3 SC avg · 19.8 disposals · 0.5 goals · 3.6 marks (19 games)
Sydney Swans
- Brodie Grundy
120.6 SC avg · 19.3 disposals · 0.5 goals · 2.1 marks (19 games)
- Isaac Heeney
115.9 SC avg · 26.9 disposals · 1.6 goals · 3.2 marks (18 games)
- Errol Gulden
109.9 SC avg · 27.4 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.5 marks (8 games)
- Nick Blakey
98.9 SC avg · 24.9 disposals · 0.3 goals · 4.1 marks (20 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 23 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Essendon Bombers and Sydney Swans team hubs.