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Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 23 2026
Who wins Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies? Our form-based model leans Hawthorn Hawks by 24-39. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Hawthorn Hawks by 24-39
Model score: Hawthorn Hawks 96–72 Collingwood Magpies
Total points: the model's 169-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Hawthorn Hawks 2, Collingwood Magpies 2 with 1 drawn, averaging 170.8 total points per game. Hawthorn Hawks have won 5 of their last 5. Collingwood Magpies have won 2 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Hawthorn Hawks 2, Collingwood Magpies 2, 1 drawn, averaging 170.8 total points per game.
- 145–83 @ Essendon Bombers13 Mar 2026
- 99–82 v Sydney Swans19 Mar 2026
- 92–91 v Geelong Cats6 Apr 2026
- 104–64 v Western Bulldogs11 Apr 2026
- 89–86 v Port Adelaide Power18 Apr 2026
- 79–93 v Adelaide Crows14 Mar 2026
- 87–54 v GWS Giants27 Mar 2026
- 65–119 @ Brisbane Lions2 Apr 2026
- 39–45 v Fremantle Dockers10 Apr 2026
- 88–83 @ Carlton Blues16 Apr 2026
Hawthorn Hawks
- Jai Newcombe
104.2 SC avg · 26.5 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.2 marks (20 games)
- James Sicily
96.8 SC avg · 21.6 disposals · 0.1 goals · 7.5 marks (19 games)
- Will Day
94.4 SC avg · 22.0 disposals · 0.9 goals · 3.6 marks (8 games)
- Jarman Impey
89.1 SC avg · 24.2 disposals · 0.2 goals · 7.5 marks (18 games)
Collingwood Magpies
- Nick Daicos
120.8 SC avg · 35.1 disposals · 1.1 goals · 4.4 marks (19 games)
- Josh Daicos
94.4 SC avg · 26.7 disposals · 0.1 goals · 6.1 marks (20 games)
- Darcy Cameron
91.6 SC avg · 17.5 disposals · 0.1 goals · 3.8 marks (19 games)
- Scott Pendlebury
86.9 SC avg · 23.6 disposals · 0.3 goals · 4.7 marks (15 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 23 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Hawthorn Hawks and Collingwood Magpies team hubs.