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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 26 2026
Who wins Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions? Our form-based model leans Sydney Swans by 24-39. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Sydney Swans by 24-39
Model score: Sydney Swans 102–77 Brisbane Lions
Total points: the model's 179-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Sydney Swans 2, Brisbane Lions 3, averaging 175.8 total points per game. Sydney Swans have won 4 of their last 5. Brisbane Lions have won 3 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Sydney Swans 2, Brisbane Lions 3, averaging 175.8 total points per game.
- 104–60 v Brisbane Lions14 Mar 2026
- 82–99 @ Hawthorn Hawks19 Mar 2026
- 163–35 @ West Coast Eagles4 Apr 2026
- 100–68 v Gold Coast Suns11 Apr 2026
- 107–66 v GWS Giants17 Apr 2026
- 60–104 @ Sydney Swans14 Mar 2026
- 113–80 @ St Kilda Saints28 Mar 2026
- 119–65 v Collingwood Magpies2 Apr 2026
- 92–66 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos11 Apr 2026
- 102–104 @ Melbourne Demons19 Apr 2026
Sydney Swans
- Brodie Grundy
119.9 SC avg · 19.9 disposals · 0.4 goals · 2.2 marks (21 games)
- Isaac Heeney
117.5 SC avg · 26.9 disposals · 1.6 goals · 3.5 marks (20 games)
- Errol Gulden
116.6 SC avg · 31.5 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.6 marks (11 games)
- Chad Warner
99.1 SC avg · 23.1 disposals · 1.6 goals · 3.1 marks (22 games)
Brisbane Lions
- Lachie Neale
110.0 SC avg · 30.0 disposals · 0.2 goals · 5.4 marks (23 games)
- Will Ashcroft
106.0 SC avg · 28.7 disposals · 0.7 goals · 5.1 marks (23 games)
- Dayne Zorko
98.1 SC avg · 24.8 disposals · 0.2 goals · 6.5 marks (13 games)
- Zac Bailey
98.1 SC avg · 21.7 disposals · 1.4 goals · 5.5 marks (22 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 26 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions team hubs.