Welcome to The Stats Lab, your new home for advanced analysis and insights for fantasy sportsWelcome to The Stats Lab
Melbourne rank 6th for defender concede at +2.9% — kicks at +2.7% (6th) and marks at +7.3% (6th) are genuine positives for Noble's disposal and intercept game. Handballs at -1.1% (10th) and tackles at -1.6% (12th) are neutral.
Geelong rank 7th for defender concede at +2.0% — handballs at +13.2% (1st) and tackles at +10.2% (1st) are standout positives. Marks at -8.9% (13th) is the notable negative. When he rotates through the midfield the Cats draw is 12th at -1.1% — neutral.
Port Adelaide rank 10th for defender concede at -1.6% — broadly neutral. Handballs at +2.9% (5th) and tackles at +2.4% (11th) are mild positives. Kicks at -2.7% (11th) and marks at -3.2% (10th) are soft negatives.
Shares the Power draw with Ash — same 10th-ranked concede at -1.6%, handballs +2.9% (5th). Two Giants defenders in a neutral matchup.
Adelaide rank 11th for defender concede at -3.1% overall. Goals at +24.4% (2nd) and tackles at +9.4% (3rd) are the genuine standouts for Roberts's aggressive forward-pressing game. Kicks at -3.4% (13th) and marks at -7.5% (12th) work against the disposal side of his game.
The best defender matchup in the squad. Essendon rank 2nd for defender concede at +8.4% — kicks at +9.6% (2nd), marks at +20.4% (2nd) and handballs at +2.6% (6th) are all genuine positives for Milera's disposal game. Tackles at -6.1% (14th) and goals at -23.1% (15th) are the negatives, but neither drives how Milera scores.
Sydney rank 13th for defender concede at -4.0% — kicks at -4.1% (14th) and marks at -11.3% (15th) are both negative. Goals at +18.2% (3rd) and tackles at +2.8% (10th) are the positives. As a midfielder the Swans draw is 11th at -1.1% — also slightly negative when he rotates. The tag and matchup combine to make this the highest-risk selection in the squad despite the 137 average.
The best matchup in the round. Essendon rank 1st for midfielder concede at +9.9% — kicks at +8.7% (1st), handballs at +7.9% (1st) and marks at +40.3% (1st) across every disposal avenue. Tackles at -8.0% (15th) is the one significant negative. The highest prediction in the entire AI team.
Collingwood rank 8th for midfielder concede at -0.6% — effectively neutral. Kicks at +3.2% (4th) and marks at +11.8% (3rd) are genuine positives. Tackles at -13.6% (17th) and goals at -36.7% (18th) are heavy negatives that don't affect how Smith accumulates. Highest season average in the squad.
St Kilda rank 16th for midfielder concede at -2.5% — a genuine headwind. Kicks at -3.8% (16th) and tackles at -6.8% (13th) are notable negatives. Marks at +4.7% (7th) and goals at +5.1% (8th) are the mild positives. Selected on average quality over matchup.
Carlton rank 13th for midfielder concede at -1.2% — a mild negative. Handballs at -4.4% (14th) and kicks at -0.8% (12th) are soft negatives. Tackles at +3.7% (7th) is the one genuine positive. Neale's CBA access and volume keep his floor high regardless of matchup.
Port Adelaide rank 14th for midfielder concede at -1.3% — a mild headwind. Handballs at +4.3% (4th) is the standout positive for Oliver's handball-heavy game. Kicks at -1.9% (14th) and marks at -6.0% (12th) are negatives.
Melbourne rank 10th for midfielder concede at -0.7% — neutral. Handballs at +5.0% (3rd) and marks at +6.7% (5th) are genuine positives for Anderson's accumulating game. Tackles at -15.3% (18th) is a heavy negative.
The toughest midfielder draw in the AI team. Fremantle rank 17th for midfielder concede at -5.6% — kicks at -5.6% (17th), handballs at -4.9% (15th) and marks at -21.0% (18th) are all heavily negative. Tackles at +8.0% (3rd) is the one bright spot for Richards's high-tackling game. Selected on average depth in a very difficult draw.
Gold Coast rank 12th for ruck concede at -7.2% — a genuine negative. Kicks at -12.8% (15th) and handballs at -11.0% (17th) are heavy negatives for the accumulation side of his game. Marks at +15.6% (4th) and tackles at +13.6% (4th) are genuine positives. Gawn's hitout dominance stabilises his floor regardless of matchup.
St Kilda rank 14th for ruck concede at -8.0% — a headwind. Kicks at -11.4% (14th) and marks at -13.6% (14th) are both negative for Grundy's disposal game. Tackles at +3.5% (9th) is a mild positive. Selected as the second ruck from the named pool.
The toughest forward matchup in the squad. Hawthorn rank 18th for forward concede at -8.0% — the worst forward draw in the competition. Kicks at -9.6% (18th) and marks at -18.4% (18th) are heavily against his forward game. When rotating as a midfielder the Hawks draw is 5th at +1.3% — a genuine positive. His mid-rotation value carries this selection despite the difficult forward matchup.
The best forward draw in the AI team. Essendon rank 2nd for forward concede at +6.2% — kicks at +6.8% (2nd), marks at +14.5% (2nd) and goals at +12.7% (3rd) are all significant positives. As a midfielder the Bombers draw is 1st at +9.9% — also the best possible draw when he rotates through the centre.
Gold Coast rank 5th for forward concede at +3.0% — kicks at +3.6% (4th), marks at +3.5% (6th) and tackles at +4.1% (8th) are genuine positives. As a midfielder the Suns draw is 3rd at +3.2% when he rotates. A well-rounded positive matchup across multiple positions.
Carlton rank 4th for forward concede at +3.3% — goals at +13.8% (2nd) and handballs at +6.3% (2nd) are the standout positives for Bailey's attacking game. Kicks at -0.5% (12th) is neutral.
Melbourne rank 10th for forward concede at +0.9% — broadly neutral. Marks at +5.0% (5th) and goals at +5.7% (7th) are genuine positives. As a midfielder the Demons draw is 10th at -0.7% — neutral when he rotates.
Shares the Bombers forward draw with Rankine — same 2nd-ranked concede at +6.2%, kicks +6.8% (2nd), marks +14.5% (2nd), goals +12.7% (3rd). As a midfielder also benefits from the Bombers' 1st-ranked midfielder draw. Two Crows forwards in the standout forward matchup of the round.
Sydney rank 13th for forward concede at -3.9% — a genuine headwind. Marks at -10.5% (15th) and goals at -9.6% (14th) are both negative. Kicks at +0.2% (9th) is neutral. As a midfielder the Swans draw is 11th at -1.1% — also slightly negative. Selected on average depth from the named pool.
The rest of the Squad to Beat is for premium subscribers. $24.99/month, cancel anytime.
Get Premium — $24.99/moJT's best NRL + AFL calls, in your inbox before lockout every week.
