Thu 6 Aug: Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium, 7:30pm) · Fri 7 Aug: Brisbane v Hawthorn (Gabba, 7:40pm)
Defenders
Caleb Daniel (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 106 · Pred: 118
The best defender draw in the competition. Western Bulldogs rank 1st for defender concede at +13.1% — kicks at +13.3% (1st), marks at +26.3% (1st) and tackles at +5.8% (4th). A walkup start.
Colby McKercher (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 91 · Pred: 101
Shares the Bulldogs draw with Daniel — same 1st-ranked concede at +13.1%, kicks +13.3% (1st), marks +26.3% (1st). Two Kangaroos defenders in the best draw of the round. McKercher is the genuine POD option given his lower ownership.
Finn O’Sullivan (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 83 · Pred: 92
Third Kangaroos defender in the Bulldogs draw — same 1st-ranked concede at +13.1% across every key stat. Three Roos defenders all benefiting from the same outstanding matchup. O’Sullivan is the ultimate POD in the backline this week.
Dayne Zorko (Lions v Hawks) · Avg: 115 · Pred: 115
Hawthorn rank 11th for defender concede at -3.2% — a mild headwind. Kicks at -3.2% (12th) and marks at -8.9% (15th) are the negatives. Tackles at +6.7% (3rd) is the genuine positive. Selected on average quality.
Darcy Wilmot (Lions v Hawks) · Avg: 103 · Pred: 103
Shares the Hawks draw with Zorko — same 11th-ranked concede at -3.2%, tackles +6.7% (3rd). Two Lions defenders in a broadly neutral draw.
Bailey Williams (Bulldogs v Kangaroos) · Avg: 96 · Pred: 92
North Melbourne rank 16th for defender concede at -6.1% — kicks at -8.9% (17th) and marks at -5.7% (11th) are the negatives. Tackles at +2.0% (10th) is a mild positive. The toughest defender draw outside of Impey. Selected on named availability.
Jarman Impey (Hawks v Lions) · Avg: 109 · Pred: 92
The worst defender draw in the primetime pool. Brisbane rank 18th for defender concede at -13.0% — kicks at -13.8% (18th) and marks at -27.0% (18th) are devastating. Selected on named availability only — the matchup is a major concern.
Midfielders
Luke Parker (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 112 · Pred: 114
Western Bulldogs rank 2nd for midfielder concede at +4.2% — marks at +13.1% (3rd) and tackles at +10.8% (2nd) are the standout positives. A positive mid draw for Parker’s accumulating game. Kicks at +2.4% (7th) also positive.
Will Ashcroft (Lions v Hawks) · Avg: 124 · Pred: 130
Hawthorn rank 5th for midfielder concede at +1.7% — tackles at +24.6% (1st) is extraordinary. The Hawks concede more tackles to opposition midfielders than any team in the competition. Ashcroft’s contested game suits this directly.
Lachie Neale (Lions v Hawks) · Avg: 122 · Pred: 127
Shares the Hawks draw with Ashcroft — same 5th-ranked concede at +1.7%, tackles +24.6% (1st). Two Lions midfielders in a genuinely positive draw.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 107 · Pred: 109
Shares the Bulldogs draw with Parker — same 2nd-ranked concede at +4.2%, marks +13.1% (3rd), tackles +10.8% (2nd). Two Kangaroos midfielders in a positive draw.
Josh Dunkley (Lions v Hawks) · Avg: 105 · Pred: 111
Third Lions midfielder in the Hawks draw — same 5th-ranked concede at +1.7%, tackles +24.6% (1st). Dunkley’s hard-running contested game suits the tackle positive directly.
Ed Richards (Bulldogs v Kangaroos) · Avg: 119 · Pred: 115
North Melbourne rank 17th for midfielder concede at -4.8% — kicks at -9.0% (18th) and handballs at -4.6% (16th) are heavy negatives. Goals at +30.6% (3rd) is the one extraordinary positive. Selected on average quality in a difficult draw.
Marcus Bontempelli (Bulldogs v Kangaroos) · Avg: 119 · Pred: 115
Shares the Kangaroos draw with Richards — same 17th-ranked draw at -4.8%, goals +30.6% (3rd). Both Bulldogs midfielders face a tough matchup. Selected on average quality.
Rucks
Tristan Xerri (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 111 · Pred: 123
The best ruck draw in the primetime pool. Western Bulldogs rank 4th for ruck concede at +13.2% — tackles at +21.6% (2nd) and goals at +58.6% (4th) are extraordinary. A lock.
Tim English (Bulldogs v Kangaroos) · Avg: 98 · Pred: 95
North Melbourne rank 11th for ruck concede at -4.8% overall. Goals at +115.0% (1st) is the extraordinary outlier — Kangaroos concede the most goals to opposition rucks in the entire competition. Kicks at -14.2% (16th) and handballs at -8.3% (17th) are heavy negatives. The goals ceiling is real but the draw suppresses his prediction below average.
Forwards
Harry Sheezel (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 138 · Pred: 138
The standout forward in the primetime pool. Western Bulldogs rank 6th for forward concede at +2.1% — kicks at +3.9% (5th) and marks at +3.4% (7th) are genuine positives. A lock given his season average.
Zac Bailey (Lions v Hawks) · Avg: 105 · Pred: 102
Hawthorn rank 17th for forward concede at -6.3% — kicks at -8.8% (17th) and marks at -14.1% (17th) are heavy negatives. Handballs at +4.8% (3rd) and tackles at +5.2% (7th) are the bright spots. Selected on average quality in a difficult draw.
Connor MacDonald (Hawks v Lions) · Avg: 100 · Pred: 93
Brisbane rank 14th for forward concede at -3.8% — a genuine headwind. Kicks at -4.5% (14th) are negative. Marks at +2.3% (8th) is a mild positive. Selected on average quality.
Jack Ginnivan (Hawks v Lions) · Avg: 97 · Pred: 90
Shares the Lions forward draw with MacDonald — same 14th-ranked concede at -3.8%, marks +2.3% (8th). Two Hawks forwards in a tough matchup. Selected on named availability.
Jy Simpkin (Kangaroos v Bulldogs) · Avg: 94 · Pred: 94
Shares the Bulldogs forward draw with Sheezel — same 6th-ranked concede at +2.1%, kicks +3.9% (5th), marks +3.4% (7th). Two Kangaroos forwards in a positive draw. Simpkin’s goal-kicking game suits the mild positive directly.
Ryley Sanders (Bulldogs v Kangaroos) · Avg: 94 · Pred: 95
North Melbourne rank 11th for forward concede at -0.8% — effectively neutral. Marks at +3.7% (6th) and goals at +3.1% (8th) are mild positives. A broadly neutral draw for Sanders’s hybrid forward game.
Joel Freijah (Bulldogs v Kangaroos) · Avg: 84 · Pred: 85
Shares the Kangaroos forward draw with Sanders — same 11th-ranked concede at -0.8%, marks +3.7% (6th). Selected on named availability in a neutral draw.
