Defenders
Callum Wilkie (Saints v Tigers) · Avg: 112.8 · Pred: 119.5
The best defender matchup of the round. Richmond are the league’s easiest matchup for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded (+5.6%, 1st) — exactly the profile that suits an intercepting key defender. The clean top-ranked draw explains the jump over season average.
Lachie Ash (Giants v Eagles) · Avg: 119.7 · Pred: 123.3
West Coast sit dead on the league average for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded (+0.0%, 9th) — a genuinely neutral draw. Ash’s volume carries the pick rather than any matchup edge.
Lachie Whitfield (Giants v Eagles) · Avg: 119.2 · Pred: 121.6
Shares Ash’s neutral Eagles draw for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded (+0.0%, 9th). Two Giants defenders backed on class in an even matchup.
John Noble (Suns v Lions) · Avg: 120.2 · Pred: 117.2
Brisbane are a mild positive for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded (+0.9%, 7th) — nothing dramatic, but trending the right way for a rebounding half-back.
Archie Roberts (Bombers v Swans) · Avg: 118.9 · Pred: 109.3
Sydney are a mild negative for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded (-0.7%, 10th) — close to neutral, no standout concern.
Josh Daicos (Magpies v Hawks) · Avg: 120.2 · Pred: 120.5
Hawthorn rank 15th for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded (-2.3%) — a genuinely below-average draw. Daicos’s class and ball-use are doing the heavy lifting through a tougher-than-average matchup.
Darcy Wilmot (Lions v Suns) · Avg: 102.6 · Pred: 117.1
The toughest defender draw in the squad. Gold Coast rank 16th (-3.5%) for intercept + rebound-50 rate conceded — a genuinely hard matchup for a rebounding defender. Selected on the size of the jump over his own season average rather than the opponent doing him any favours.
Midfielders
Clayton Oliver (Giants v Eagles) · Avg: 113.3 · Pred: 121.6
The best midfielder matchup of the round, and it’s not close. West Coast are the league’s easiest matchup for clearance differential conceded (+10.4%, 1st) — exactly the terrain Oliver thrives in around the stoppages.
Nick Daicos (Magpies v Hawks) · Avg: 142.8 · Pred: 147.7
Hawthorn rank 4th (+4.3%) for clearance differential conceded — a genuine positive for a ball-magnet midfielder. The highest prediction in the squad, built on quality and a favourable draw together.
Lachie Neale (Lions v Suns) · Avg: 124.1 · Pred: 128.2
Gold Coast rank 6th (+2.8%) for clearances conceded — a modest positive, not the standout some might assume. Neale’s own class is carrying most of the weight here.
Will Ashcroft (Lions v Suns) · Avg: 124.8 · Pred: 130.8
Shares Neale’s Gold Coast draw for clearance differential conceded — the same modest +2.8% (6th) positive. Two Lions midfielders backed on quality in a decent but unspectacular matchup.
Isaac Heeney (Swans v Bombers) · Avg: 120.2 · Pred: 127.3
Essendon rank 8th (+1.6%) for clearances conceded — close to league average. Heeney’s forward-midfield hybrid role means he’s less reliant on clearance winnings anyway, which helps offset the modest matchup signal.
Bailey Smith (Cats v Kangaroos) · Avg: 139.4 · Pred: 138.1
North Melbourne rank 16th (-7.1%) for clearance differential conceded — a genuinely tough matchup. Smith’s class through the midfield is what’s carrying this pick, not the draw.
Jordan Dawson (Crows v Dockers) · Avg: 136.6 · Pred: 138.3
The toughest midfield draw in the squad. Fremantle are the league’s 2nd-hardest team to win clearances against (-7.5%, 17th) — a genuinely difficult matchup for any inside midfielder. Dawson’s sheer output keeps him in the squad regardless.
Rucks
Brodie Grundy (Swans v Bombers) · Avg: 113.1 · Pred: 122.6
Essendon are a mild negative for hitouts conceded (-1.7%, 14th) — not a great sign for a ruck reliant on hitout-to-advantage work, but Grundy’s all-round ground game means he’s never purely dependent on the tap.
Max Gawn (Demons v Power) · Avg: 122.5 · Pred: 126.8
The tougher ruck draw of the two. Port Adelaide rank 17th (-5.1%) for hitouts conceded — a genuinely hard matchup at the stoppages. Gawn’s status as the highest-averaging ruck in the pool is what keeps him in, not the opponent.
Forwards
Toby Greene (Giants v Eagles) · Avg: 102.6 · Pred: 110.9
The best forward matchup of the round. West Coast are the league’s 2nd-easiest team for forward-50 entries conceded (+24.1%) — a genuinely outstanding number for a small forward who thrives on repeat forward-half access. Greene also spends real time through the midfield, so some of his output won’t come purely from forward-half supply.
Bradley Hill (Saints v Tigers) · Avg: 112.9 · Pred: 120.2
Richmond rank 4th (+16.0%) for forward-50 entries conceded — a strong positive for a small forward working the space in front of goal. Worth noting Hill actually plays predominantly in defense these days, so this forward-50 matchup only tells part of the story.
Max Hall (Saints v Tigers) · Avg: 103.6 · Pred: 109.3
Shares Hill’s favourable Richmond draw (+16.0%, 4th) — good news for another Saints forward looking to capitalise on repeat entries. Hall also gets time through the midfield, adding a layer of output the forward-50 number alone doesn’t capture.
Izak Rankine (Crows v Dockers) · Avg: 108.7 · Pred: 109.8
Fremantle rank 6th (+5.0%) for forward-50 entries conceded — a mild positive, sitting a touch above league average. Rankine spends time in the midfield too, so his ceiling isn’t fully tied to Adelaide’s forward-half entries.
Kysaiah Pickett (Demons v Power) · Avg: 118.5 · Pred: 116.9
Port Adelaide rank 7th (+4.4%) for forward-50 entries conceded — close to Rankine’s number, a modest positive for a small forward working hard around the ground. Pickett also rotates through the midfield, another avenue for output beyond this matchup.
Zac Bailey (Lions v Suns) · Avg: 105.1 · Pred: 113.3
Gold Coast rank 12th (-4.8%) for forward-50 entries conceded — a below-average draw. Bailey’s pressure game and season form are carrying the pick through a tougher-than-ideal matchup, and his regular midfield minutes give him a way to offset a quiet forward-half matchup.
Harry Sheezel (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 136.9 · Pred: 131.6
The toughest forward draw in the squad. Geelong rank 16th (-15.2%) for forward-50 entries conceded — a genuinely hard number. Sheezel’s the highest average in the squad regardless, and his half-forward running game — plus regular midfield time — generates its own supply independent of team entries.
