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AFLW Primetime Squad to Beat — Round 1

AFLW Primetime Squad to Beat — Round 1

August 14, 2026

Round 1 has been played.

For this week's calls, see the AFLW predictions hub with every upcoming game, updated with the team lists, or head to the AFLW hub for all the latest analysis.

Primetime this round covers all three Saturday games: Suns v Bulldogs, Tigers v Magpies, and the newly-confirmed Kangaroos v Cats double-header opener. That's a six-team pool, and the Kangaroos-Cats matchup dominates it — this squad leans heavily on that game.

Squad shape: 7 Defenders, 6 Midfielders, 2 Rucks, 7 Forwards — 22 in total, bench included, because in this format the bench scores count.

Defenders

Eliza Shannon (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 58.3 · Pred: 70.6
The best defender matchup of the round. Geelong grade as a strong positive draw overall (+22%), with goals the standout individual positive (+3.7%). The biggest lift of any defender in this pool relative to season average.

Libby Birch (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 75.3 · Pred: 86.3
Shares North Melbourne's draw with Shannon — same +20% composite multiplier, same goals-driven positive. The highest prediction of the primetime defenders.

Erika O'Shea (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 76.8 · Pred: 85.6
The third Kangaroos defender in this squad, same +19% matchup against Geelong. Three North Melbourne backs all getting a genuine lift from this fixture.

Tarni White (Magpies v Tigers) · Avg: 96.1 · Pred: 91.8
Richmond grade as essentially neutral overall (+1%), with marks (+7.1%) and goals (+6.4%) both mild positives for White's rebounding game. The highest average of the primetime defenders.

Rebecca Webster (Cats v Kangaroos) · Avg: 69.1 · Pred: 69.6
The mirror side of the Kangaroos-Cats game — North Melbourne grade as a genuine negative for Geelong's defenders (-3%), with goals the clearest concern (-17.5%).

Britney Gutknecht (Bulldogs v Suns) · Avg: 75.1 · Pred: 65.5
Gold Coast grade as a mild negative (-2%), though goals is a standout individual positive in isolation (+17.3%) — a mixed signal.

Katie Lynch (Suns v Bulldogs) · Avg: 69.2 · Pred: 60.8
The toughest defender draw in this pool. Western Bulldogs grade as a genuine negative (-5%), with goals (-8.9%) the clearest concern.

Midfielders

Jasmine Garner (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 136.9 · Pred: 170.6
The best midfielder matchup of the round, and the highest prediction in the entire squad. Geelong grade as a strong positive draw overall (+23%), with goals the standout individual positive (+4.0%).

Ash Riddell (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 143.3 · Pred: 170.2
Shares North Melbourne's draw with Garner — same +21% composite matchup, same goals-driven positive. The highest average in the squad.

Mia King (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 94.6 · Pred: 112.4
The third Kangaroos midfielder to make this squad off the same +18% Geelong matchup. A significant lift on a modest season average.

Charlie Rowbottom (Suns v Bulldogs) · Avg: 117.2 · Pred: 117.2
Western Bulldogs grade as a mild negative overall (-3%), with goals the clearest concern (-7.8%).

Brittany Bonnici (Magpies v Tigers) · Avg: 119.1 · Pred: 112.1
Richmond also grade as a mild negative (-3%), though marks (+4.9%) and goals (+4.2%) are still positive in isolation.

Monique Conti (Tigers v Magpies) · Avg: 118.1 · Pred: 109.7
The toughest midfielder draw in this pool. Collingwood grade as the clearest negative overall (-6%), with tackles the standout concern (-3.3%).

Rucks

Kim Rennie (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 69.8 · Pred: 78.4
The best ruck matchup of the round. Geelong grade as a clear positive (+13%), with goals the individual standout (+3.2%) — a strong lift on a modest season average.

Imogen Barnett (Magpies v Tigers) · Avg: 77.5 · Pred: 70.8
Richmond grade as essentially neutral overall (-1%), with marks (+5.7%) and goals (+5.0%) both mild positives. The highest average of the two rucks, carried more on quality than matchup.

Forwards

Tahlia Randall (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 65.7 · Pred: 80.9
The best forward matchup of the round. Geelong grade as a strong positive draw overall (+26%) — the composite multiplier is doing the work here even though the individual pressure stats (tackles, handballs, marks) are all mildly negative in isolation.

Blaithin Bogue (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 68.8 · Pred: 87.2
Shares North Melbourne's draw with Randall — same +27% composite matchup, the largest lift of any player in this squad relative to season average.

Emma King (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 63.5 · Pred: 77.8
A third Kangaroos forward off the same Geelong matchup, +19% overall.

Alice O'Loughlin (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 65.8 · Pred: 80.6
The fourth Kangaroos forward in this squad — same +19% matchup, same pattern of a strong composite lift despite mixed individual pressure stats.

Jenna Bruton (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 67.4 · Pred: 79.4
Rounds out a Kangaroos forward line that's taken five of the seven spots in this position. +17% overall against Geelong.

Ellie Blackburn (Bulldogs v Suns) · Avg: 82.7 · Pred: 85.7
Gold Coast grade as mildly negative overall (-2%), though goals is a standout individual positive in isolation (+16.9%) — a mixed signal that nets out close to neutral. The highest average of the primetime forwards.

Mikayla Bowen (Cats v Kangaroos) · Avg: 104.2 · Pred: 97.7
The mirror side of the Kangaroos-Cats game again — North Melbourne grade as a mild negative for Geelong's forwards (-2%), with goals the clearest concern (-17.1%). The one forward in this squad facing a genuine headwind.

The Stats Lab Primetime Squad to Beat: AFLW Round 1 team


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Round 1
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