Squad shape: 7 Defenders, 6 Midfielders, 2 Rucks, 7 Forwards — 22 in total, bench included, because in this format the bench scores count.
Defenders
Libby Birch (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 75.3 · Pred: 86.3
The best defender matchup of the round. The model has Geelong as a genuine positive draw overall (+20% on the composite matchup multiplier), with goals the standout individual positive (+3.7%). A strong lift on Birch’s season average.
Erika O’Shea (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 76.8 · Pred: 85.6
Shares North Melbourne’s draw with Birch — same +19% composite multiplier against Geelong, same goals-driven positive. Two Kangaroos defenders getting a genuine lift from this matchup.
Zipporah Fish (Swans v Crows) · Avg: 100.1 · Pred: 108.9
Adelaide grade out as a mild positive draw overall (+9%), with marks the clearest individual positive (+5.1%). The highest prediction in the defender group.
Jade Ellenger (Lions v Bombers) · Avg: 76.0 · Pred: 81.6
Essendon grade as a mild positive matchup (+6%), with goals (+2.4%) and handballs (+2.2%) both slightly favourable. Nothing dramatic either way.
Tarni White (Magpies v Tigers) · Avg: 96.1 · Pred: 91.8
Richmond come out essentially neutral overall (+1%), though marks (+7.1%) and goals (+6.4%) are both mild individual positives for White’s rebounding game.
Tilly Lucas-Rodd (Giants v Eagles) · Avg: 98.5 · Pred: 91.1
West Coast grade as a mild negative draw (-3%), with handballs (-4.2%) and goals (-3.9%) both slightly unfavourable. Selected on average quality over matchup.
Serene Watson (Saints v Blues) · Avg: 90.8 · Pred: 82.1
The toughest defender draw in the squad. Carlton grade as the clearest negative matchup at -6% overall, though no single stat swings heavily — it’s a broad, mild headwind across the board rather than one standout concern.
Midfielders
Jasmine Garner (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 136.9 · Pred: 170.6
The best midfielder matchup of the round, and the highest prediction in the entire squad. Geelong grade as a strong positive draw overall (+23%), with goals the standout individual positive (+4.0%).
Ash Riddell (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 143.3 · Pred: 170.2
Shares North Melbourne’s draw with Garner — same +21% composite matchup, same goals-driven positive (+4.0%). Two Kangaroos midfielders getting a genuine lift from this fixture.
Laura Gardiner (Swans v Crows) · Avg: 149.0 · Pred: 153.8
Adelaide grade as a solid positive draw (+7%), with marks (+6.4%) and kicks (+3.3%) both genuine positives. A clean, favourable matchup for a high-volume disposal midfielder.
Tyla Hanks (Demons v Hawks) · Avg: 114.6 · Pred: 116.8
Hawthorn also grade as a positive draw (+7%), with marks (+4.1%) and tackles (+4.0%) both mild positives. A tidy, if unspectacular, lift.
Ebony Marinoff (Crows v Swans) · Avg: 149.5 · Pred: 154.4
Sydney come out essentially neutral overall (+1%). Marks is the one mild negative (-3.6%); nothing else stands out. The highest average in the squad, carried on quality rather than matchup.
Kiara Bowers (Dockers v Power) · Avg: 131.7 · Pred: 132.6
Port Adelaide also grade as neutral overall (+1%), with goals (+7.9%) the one standout individual positive. A broadly even draw for a contested-ball midfielder.
Rucks
Matilda Scholz (Power v Dockers) · Avg: 111.6 · Pred: 114.7
The better of the two ruck draws. Fremantle grade as a mild positive matchup (+5%), with tackles the standout individual positive (+4.2%) — suiting Scholz’s around-the-ground work.
Mim Strom (Dockers v Power) · Avg: 114.1 · Pred: 117.3
Port Adelaide come out essentially neutral overall (-1%). Goals is a mild individual positive (+7.4%); nothing else stands out strongly. Strom is the highest-averaging ruck in the competition, and that quality is doing the heavy lifting here rather than the matchup.
Forwards
Blaithin Bogue (Kangaroos v Cats) · Avg: 68.8 · Pred: 87.2
The best forward matchup of the round, and the largest lift of any player in the squad. Geelong grade as a strong positive draw overall (+27%) — the composite multiplier is doing the work here even though the individual pressure stats (tackles, handballs, marks) are all mildly negative in isolation.
Courtney Hodder (Lions v Bombers) · Avg: 91.5 · Pred: 105.4
Essendon grade as a strong positive matchup (+18%), with goals (+12.6%), handballs (+12.5%) and tackles (+11.3%) all comfortably positive. A well-rounded draw with real ceiling upside given the prediction well above season average.
Charlotte Mullins (Lions v Bombers) · Avg: 75.5 · Pred: 92.8
Shares Brisbane’s draw with Hodder — same +18% composite matchup, same across-the-board positives against an Essendon defence that’s leaking to the position.
Erone Fitzpatrick (Blues v Saints) · Avg: 84.2 · Pred: 90.3
St Kilda grade as a mild positive draw (+7%), with handballs the standout individual positive (+5.0%).
Mikayla Bowen (Cats v Kangaroos) · Avg: 104.2 · Pred: 97.7
North Melbourne grade as a mild negative overall (-2%), with goals the clearest concern (-17.1%). The one forward in the squad facing a genuine headwind.
Ellie Blackburn (Bulldogs v Suns) · Avg: 82.7 · Pred: 85.7
Gold Coast also grade as mildly negative overall (-2%), though goals is a standout individual positive in isolation (+16.9%) — a mixed signal that nets out close to neutral.
Chloe Molloy (Swans v Crows) · Avg: 91.8 · Pred: 82.3
Adelaide come out essentially neutral overall (-1%), with goals the one mild negative (-10.3%). Selected on average quality in a largely even draw.
