The second-best defender draw in primetime. Collingwood rank 4th for defender concede at +6.2% — kicks at +6.5% (5th), handballs at +8.2% (3rd), marks at +11.0% (5th) and goals at +5.7% (7th) are all genuine positives. Tackles at -6.8% (15th) is the one notable negative. A well-rounded positive draw.
Tom Stewart (Cats v Magpies) · Avg: 93 · Pred: 92
Shares the Magpies matchup with Humphries — same 4th-ranked concede at +6.2%, kicks +6.5% (5th), marks +11.0% (5th). Stewart's intercept-marking game suits both disposal and marks positives directly. Two Cats defenders in what is the standout defender draw from the Collingwood-Geelong game.
Josh Daicos (Magpies v Cats) · Avg: 114 · Pred: 118
Geelong rank 7th for defender concede at +2.0% — handballs at +13.2% (1st) and tackles at +10.2% (1st) are the standout positives. Marks at -8.9% (13th) is the notable negative. When he rotates through the midfield the Cats draw is 12th at -1.1% — neutral. Selected on average quality with the handball and tackle positives directly relevant.
Dan Houston (Magpies v Cats) · Avg: 100 · Pred: 100
Shares the Geelong draw with Daicos — same 7th-ranked concede at +2.0%, handballs +13.2% (1st), tackles +10.2% (1st). Marks at -8.9% (13th) is the shared negative. Houston's running defender role suits the handball and tackle positives.
Karl Worner (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 89 · Pred: 83
Shares the Bulldogs draw with Ryan — same 1st-ranked concede at +13.9%, kicks +13.7% (1st), marks +26.6% (1st). Three Dockers defenders in the standout draw of the round. Worner's lower average reflects his role as a rotational defender, but the matchup is excellent.
Jordan Clark (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 98 · Pred: 96
Also in the Bulldogs draw — same top-ranked concede at +13.9% across every stat. Despite the low season average, Clark's prediction is lifted significantly by the extraordinary draw. Selected on named availability and the strength of the matchup.
It really is primetime for defenders this round — we have two teams up against sides that are top five for conceding to defenders, with a further team sitting at 7th. While we've got some top tier options here that likely make the backline template, after the likes of Daicos, Ryan, Humphries, Stewart, Clark and Houston, we do have a chance to be unique at D7. I've gone for Worner against the number one conceding Bulldogs.
Midfielders
Bailey Smith (Cats v Magpies) · Avg: 143 · Pred: 141
The highest prediction in the primetime pool. Collingwood rank 8th for midfielder concede at -0.6% — effectively neutral. Kicks at +3.2% (4th) and marks at +11.8% (3rd) are genuine positives. Tackles at -13.6% (17th) and goals at -36.7% (18th) are heavy negatives that don't affect how Smith accumulates. The highest season average in the squad.
Nick Daicos (Magpies v Cats) · Avg: 139 · Pred: 120 · Tagged by Oisin Mullin (-12.6%)
Mullin's tag applies a -12.6% discount — significant. Geelong rank 12th for midfielder concede at -1.1% — neutral. Tackles at +6.4% (4th) is the genuine positive. Marks at -7.0% (13th) and goals at -20.7% (15th) are negatives. The tag and neutral draw combine to bring the prediction well below his 139 average. The biggest fade candidate in the midfield group.
Andrew Brayshaw (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 106 · Pred: 105
Western Bulldogs rank 4th for midfielder concede at +2.8% — tackles at +11.1% (2nd) and marks at +6.5% (6th) are genuine positives. Kicks at +1.5% (6th) is a mild positive. Handballs at -2.4% (13th) is the one negative. Brayshaw's disposal and marking game suits this matchup well.
Caleb Serong (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 107 · Pred: 104
Shares the Bulldogs midfielder draw with Brayshaw exactly — same 4th-ranked concede at +2.8%, tackles +11.1% (2nd), marks +6.5% (6th). Two Dockers midfielders in a genuine positive draw. Serong's contested game and tackle output suit the tackle positive directly.
Ed Richards (Bulldogs v Dockers) · Avg: 121 · Pred: 117
The toughest midfielder draw in the primetime pool. Fremantle rank 17th for midfielder concede at -5.6% — kicks at -5.6% (17th), handballs at -4.9% (15th) and marks at -21.0% (18th) are all heavily negative. Tackles at +8.0% (3rd) is the one significant positive for Richards's high-tackling game. Selected on average quality in a very difficult draw.
Marcus Bontempelli (Bulldogs v Dockers) · Avg: 121 · Pred: 115
Shares the Dockers midfielder draw with Richards — same 17th-ranked draw at -5.6%, kicks -5.6% (17th), marks -21.0% (18th). Tackles at +8.0% (3rd) is the one saving grace. Both Bulldogs midfielders are in the toughest draw of the round.
Tom Liberatore (Bulldogs v Dockers) · Avg: 103 · Pred: 102
Also in the Dockers draw — same 17th-ranked headwind at -5.6%. Tackles at +8.0% (3rd) keeps him viable. Three Bulldogs midfielders all facing Fremantle's stingy defensive record. Selected on named availability and tackle upside.
The high conceding Bulldogs (for midfield) in comparison to other teams in this primetime make them the ideal candidates to pick opposition players from. It means Serong and Brayshaw become locks, while Johnson and O'Driscoll are potential candidates for PODs. Other midfield rotational options for the Dockers are from other positions, such as Murphy Reid or Shai Bolton. The sheer quality of the remaining pool of midfielders probably means we cannot afford to include such aforementioned Dockers PODs. Bailey Smith, Richards, Bontempelli and Daicos (despite the tag) need to be included. While we could use our last spot on a Dockers player, Libba seems the clearer choice as he returned to the CBA action last round.
Rucks
Darcy Cameron (Magpies v Cats) · Avg: 99 · Pred: 101
The best ruck draw in the primetime pool. Geelong rank 2nd for ruck concede at +19.0% — kicks at +22.3% (2nd) and handballs at +15.5% (2nd) are extraordinary for a ruck's accumulation game. Tackles at +9.8% (5th) also positive. Marks at -0.6% (8th) is neutral. With Rhys Stanley doubtful, Cameron may assume a larger ruck role.
Luke Jackson (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 121 · Pred: 121
Western Bulldogs rank 5th for ruck concede at +10.7% — tackles at +16.0% (3rd) and goals at +30.1% (5th) are the standout positives. Kicks at -6.4% (11th) is the notable negative. Jackson's dominant ruck role suits the tackle and goals positives directly. The higher season average of the two rucks.
It really comes down to three here and Cameron is the standout matchup based pick. With his three previous scores of 154, 120 and 131 he hits this match in red hot form. Lock. While both English and Jackson's form haven't set the world on fire, opposing rucks have struggled to score against the Dockers as they sit 15th for conceding to them.
Forwards
Gryan Miers (Cats v Magpies) · Avg: 102 · Pred: 100
Collingwood rank 8th for forward concede at +1.6% — kicks at +4.8% (3rd) and marks at +8.7% (4th) are genuine positives for Miers's goal-kicking forward game. Handballs at +4.4% (4th) also positive. Tackles at -15.1% (18th) is the significant negative.
Jordan De Goey (Magpies v Cats) · Avg: 94 · Pred: 98
Geelong rank 9th for forward concede at +1.5% — tackles at +6.6% (3rd) is the standout positive for De Goey's hard-running hybrid game. Kicks at +2.2% (7th) and handballs at +2.2% (6th) are mild positives. As a midfielder the Cats draw is 12th at -1.1% — neutral when he rotates. A broadly neutral matchup.
Shai Bolton (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 99 · Pred: 98
Western Bulldogs rank 7th for forward concede at +1.8% — kicks at +2.9% (5th) and tackles at +4.8% (6th) are genuine positives. As a midfielder the Bulldogs draw is 4th at +2.8% — also positive when Bolton rotates through the centre. A well-rounded positive matchup across multiple positions.
Josh Treacy (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 97 · Pred: 96
Shares the Bulldogs forward draw with Bolton — same 7th-ranked concede at +1.8%, kicks +2.9% (5th), tackles +4.8% (6th). Treacy's marking forward game also benefits from the mild marks positive at +1.8% (10th). Two Dockers forwards in a genuine positive draw.
Murphy Reid (Dockers v Bulldogs) · Avg: 95 · Pred: 93
Also in the Bulldogs forward draw — same +1.8% (7th), kicks +2.9% (5th). As a midfielder the Bulldogs draw is 4th at +2.8% when Reid rotates — also positive. Three Dockers forwards all benefiting from the same exploitable matchup.
Shaun Mannagh (Cats v Magpies) · Avg: 84 · Pred: 87
Shares the Magpies forward draw with Miers — same 8th-ranked concede at +1.6%, kicks +4.8% (3rd), marks +8.7% (4th). Mannagh is a fitness test this week after sitting out the final quarter against the Saints. If he clears, the matchup is a genuine positive.
The line that offers the potential most variety this Primetime round. Barring the Dockers (who rank 16th) the other three teams sit around midtable for conceding to forwards — not great, but workable. It does mean Murphy Reid and Shai Bolton, as rotational midfielders, are walkup starts given the Bulldogs midfield concede rank. Miers and De Goey are in despite their on and off form, while Treacy and Amiss take up two of the POD spots due to the potential of high goal scoring tallies against a lower quality Bulldogs defence.
