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Thu 6 Aug: Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium, 7:30pm) · Fri 7 Aug: Brisbane v Hawthorn (Gabba, 7:40pm)
The best defender draw in the competition. Western Bulldogs rank 1st for defender concede at +13.1% — kicks at +13.3% (1st), marks at +26.3% (1st) and tackles at +5.8% (4th). A walkup start.
Shares the Bulldogs draw with Daniel — same 1st-ranked concede at +13.1%, kicks +13.3% (1st), marks +26.3% (1st). Two Kangaroos defenders in the best draw of the round. McKercher is the genuine POD option given his lower ownership.
Third Kangaroos defender in the Bulldogs draw — same 1st-ranked concede at +13.1% across every key stat. Three Roos defenders all benefiting from the same outstanding matchup. O’Sullivan is the ultimate POD in the backline this week.
Hawthorn rank 11th for defender concede at -3.2% — a mild headwind. Kicks at -3.2% (12th) and marks at -8.9% (15th) are the negatives. Tackles at +6.7% (3rd) is the genuine positive. Selected on average quality.
Shares the Hawks draw with Zorko — same 11th-ranked concede at -3.2%, tackles +6.7% (3rd). Two Lions defenders in a broadly neutral draw.
North Melbourne rank 16th for defender concede at -6.1% — kicks at -8.9% (17th) and marks at -5.7% (11th) are the negatives. Tackles at +2.0% (10th) is a mild positive. The toughest defender draw outside of Impey. Selected on named availability.
The worst defender draw in the primetime pool. Brisbane rank 18th for defender concede at -13.0% — kicks at -13.8% (18th) and marks at -27.0% (18th) are devastating. Selected on named availability only — the matchup is a major concern.
Western Bulldogs rank 2nd for midfielder concede at +4.2% — marks at +13.1% (3rd) and tackles at +10.8% (2nd) are the standout positives. A positive mid draw for Parker’s accumulating game. Kicks at +2.4% (7th) also positive.
Hawthorn rank 5th for midfielder concede at +1.7% — tackles at +24.6% (1st) is extraordinary. The Hawks concede more tackles to opposition midfielders than any team in the competition. Ashcroft’s contested game suits this directly.
Shares the Hawks draw with Ashcroft — same 5th-ranked concede at +1.7%, tackles +24.6% (1st). Two Lions midfielders in a genuinely positive draw.
Shares the Bulldogs draw with Parker — same 2nd-ranked concede at +4.2%, marks +13.1% (3rd), tackles +10.8% (2nd). Two Kangaroos midfielders in a positive draw.
Third Lions midfielder in the Hawks draw — same 5th-ranked concede at +1.7%, tackles +24.6% (1st). Dunkley’s hard-running contested game suits the tackle positive directly.
North Melbourne rank 17th for midfielder concede at -4.8% — kicks at -9.0% (18th) and handballs at -4.6% (16th) are heavy negatives. Goals at +30.6% (3rd) is the one extraordinary positive. Selected on average quality in a difficult draw.
Shares the Kangaroos draw with Richards — same 17th-ranked draw at -4.8%, goals +30.6% (3rd). Both Bulldogs midfielders face a tough matchup. Selected on average quality.
The best ruck draw in the primetime pool. Western Bulldogs rank 4th for ruck concede at +13.2% — tackles at +21.6% (2nd) and goals at +58.6% (4th) are extraordinary. A lock.
North Melbourne rank 11th for ruck concede at -4.8% overall. Goals at +115.0% (1st) is the extraordinary outlier — Kangaroos concede the most goals to opposition rucks in the entire competition. Kicks at -14.2% (16th) and handballs at -8.3% (17th) are heavy negatives. The goals ceiling is real but the draw suppresses his prediction below average.
The standout forward in the primetime pool. Western Bulldogs rank 6th for forward concede at +2.1% — kicks at +3.9% (5th) and marks at +3.4% (7th) are genuine positives. A lock given his season average.
Hawthorn rank 17th for forward concede at -6.3% — kicks at -8.8% (17th) and marks at -14.1% (17th) are heavy negatives. Handballs at +4.8% (3rd) and tackles at +5.2% (7th) are the bright spots. Selected on average quality in a difficult draw.
Brisbane rank 14th for forward concede at -3.8% — a genuine headwind. Kicks at -4.5% (14th) are negative. Marks at +2.3% (8th) is a mild positive. Selected on average quality.
Shares the Lions forward draw with MacDonald — same 14th-ranked concede at -3.8%, marks +2.3% (8th). Two Hawks forwards in a tough matchup. Selected on named availability.
Shares the Bulldogs forward draw with Sheezel — same 6th-ranked concede at +2.1%, kicks +3.9% (5th), marks +3.4% (7th). Two Kangaroos forwards in a positive draw. Simpkin’s goal-kicking game suits the mild positive directly.
North Melbourne rank 11th for forward concede at -0.8% — effectively neutral. Marks at +3.7% (6th) and goals at +3.1% (8th) are mild positives. A broadly neutral draw for Sanders’s hybrid forward game.
Shares the Kangaroos forward draw with Sanders — same 11th-ranked concede at -0.8%, marks +3.7% (6th). Selected on named availability in a neutral draw.
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