Welcome to The Stats Lab, your new home for advanced analysis and insights for fantasy sportsWelcome to The Stats Lab
NFL Mock Draft Simulator 2026
Picking 7th in a 12-team half-PPR draft by default — change the league size, your slot and scoring below to see who is realistically available at each of your snake picks, from live Sleeper ADP. Free, runs entirely in your browser.
Realistic targets
- 11584RB · TB · ADP 47.9
Safe84.8% - 8146WR · NYJ · ADP 46.8
Safe80.4% - 6790RB · CHI · ADP 44.3
Safe66.7% - 7526WR · DEN · ADP 44.0
Swing64.8% - 12517TE · CHI · ADP 43.0Swing57.7%
- 5892RB · HOU · ADP 42.8
Safe56.2% - 12514WR · TB · ADP 41.0Swing41.9%
- 9997WR · BAL · ADP 40.3
Safe36.3% - 6801WR · CIN · ADP 39.1
Safe26.8% - 12526WR · CAR · ADP 38.2
Swing20.4%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 10859TE · DET · ADP 62.5
Safe84.1% - 6904QB · PHI · ADP 61.9
Safe82.4% - 12519WR · CHI · ADP 60.6Swing77.9%
- 12529RB · NE · ADP 59.1
Swing71.8% - 12490RB · JAX · ADP 58.4
Swing68.6% - 8148WR · DET · ADP 57.2Swing62.6%
- 5927WR · WAS · ADP 56.1
Safe56.5% - 2133WR · LA · ADP 55.9
Steady55.3% - 6770QB · CIN · ADP 53.8Safe42.6%
- 13286RB · SEA · ADP 53.6
Swing41.4%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 11560QB · CHI · ADP 74.4Safe82.7%
- 11628WR · ARI · ADP 73.3
Lottery79.7% - 7553TE · ATL · ADP 71.2
Lottery72.9% - 11566QB · WAS · ADP 71.0Safe72.1%
- 13279WR · TEN · ADP 70.8
Lottery71.4% - 7611RB · NE · ADP 69.8Swing67.5%
- 9487WR · JAX · ADP 68.2Swing60.6%
- 8228RB · PIT · ADP 67.7
Safe58.3% - 9484TE · GB · ADP 66.0
Swing50.0% - 8167WR · GB · ADP 65.6Swing48.0%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 13294WR · PHI · ADP 89.7Lottery84.0%
- 10232WR · ARI · ADP 89.6Lottery83.8%
- 4037WR · TB · ADP 88.7Swing81.9%
- 11583RB · CAR · ADP 87.8Lottery79.8%
- 3294QB · DAL · ADP 86.3
Safe76.0% - 12489RB · DEN · ADP 85.7Lottery74.3%
- 6806RB · DEN · ADP 84.0Steady69.0%
- 4217TE · SF · ADP 83.9
Safe68.7% - 7021RB · PIT · ADP 82.1Swing62.3%
- 5045WR · DEN · ADP 81.0Steady58.2%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 9756WR · MIN · ADP 102.3
Lottery84.2% - 12533RB · WAS · ADP 101.0Swing81.8%
- 12534RB · CHI · ADP 100.8Lottery81.4%
- 10222WR · GB · ADP 98.4Swing76.2%
- 11581RB · GB · ADP 98.3Swing75.9%
- 7523QB · JAX · ADP 97.2Safe73.1%
- 1466TE · KC · ADP 96.3
Safe70.7% - LARDEF · LA · ADP 95.468.1%
- 10236TE · BUF · ADP 94.9
Safe66.7% - 8142WR · IND · ADP 93.1
Swing60.9%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 4046QB · KC · ADP 116.8Safe83.8%
- 8110TE · DAL · ADP 116.8Lottery83.8%
- 4199RB · MIN · ADP 115.2Steady81.1%
- 9500WR · IND · ADP 114.6Safe80.1%
- SEADEF · SEA · ADP 113.778.4%
- 13417WR · SF · ADP 112.6Lottery76.1%
- 12508QB · NYG · ADP 111.1
Swing72.8% - 13298WR · CLE · ADP 110.9
Lottery72.4% - 2449WR · WAS · ADP 109.2Steady68.2%
- 8131TE · NYG · ADP 108.0Swing65.0%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 11624WR · KC · ADP 129.4Swing83.9%
- 8183QB · SF · ADP 128.6Safe82.8%
- 5022TE · PHI · ADP 127.4Steady81.0%
- 10219RB · JAX · ADP 126.0Lottery78.6%
- 8136RB · WAS · ADP 125.9Lottery78.5%
- 5012TE · BAL · ADP 124.4Lottery75.7%
- 8126WR · TEN · ADP 123.6Steady74.1%
- 13305RB · LV · ADP 122.4
Lottery71.6% - DENDEF · DEN · ADP 121.369.2%
- 13281WR · NO · ADP 120.1
Lottery66.4%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- 11646WR · CAR · ADP 143.8Swing83.5%
- 9753RB · SEA · ADP 143.1Lottery82.6%
- 3163QB · DET · ADP 142.4Safe81.6%
- 3451K · HOU · ADP 141.279.9%
- 2747K · SEA · ADP 140.478.7%
- 8259K · LAC · ADP 139.877.7%
- 11533K · DAL · ADP 138.475.4%
- NEDEF · NE · ADP 137.774.1%
- BALDEF · BAL · ADP 136.171.1%
- 12474RB · HOU · ADP 134.2Lottery67.3%
Safe to wait
Realistic targets
- MINDEF · MIN · ADP 157.284.6%
- 11539K · DET · ADP 156.383.5%
- 7839K · CIN · ADP 155.782.8%
- LACDEF · LAC · ADP 154.681.5%
- 11655RB · NYG · ADP 152.9Lottery79.2%
- 9225RB · PHI · ADP 152.5Lottery78.6%
- 8134WR · BUF · ADP 151.6Steady77.3%
- 5849QB · MIN · ADP 150.4Safe75.4%
- 8676WR · SEA · ADP 149.2Lottery73.4%
- 3214TE · NE · ADP 148.8Lottery72.7%
Safe to wait
How the availability model works
For a snake draft with T teams, your pick in round r from slot s is (r-1)xT + s in odd rounds and (r-1)xT + (T - s + 1) in even rounds. We model each player's actual draft position as a normal distribution centred on their ADP, with a spread that grows with draft position: sigma = max(3, 0.12 x ADP). A pick-5 player barely moves; a pick-100 player can move a full round. The chance a player is still on the board at your pick is one minus the normal CDF of how far your pick is past their ADP, in standard deviations. Realistic targets are 15%-85% likely to be there; below 15% they are likely gone, above 85% you can safely wait. We use the ADP-proportional spread rather than the gap between the three format boards, because those boards differ systematically (PPR inflates receivers) — that measures format disagreement, not how much real drafters move a player.
Pair it with the tier cheat sheet and the value board from the draft kit.
The free weekly cheat sheet
JT's best NRL + AFL calls, in your inbox before lockout every week.