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Welcome to The Stats Lab

NFL Fantasy Value Picks 2026

Where the market and our projections disagree. A positive gap means the market drafts a player later than our value says it should — a value pick. Negative gaps are reaches. Free and sortable.

snapshot 2026-10-21 · 208 players
PPR Value Board
208 players
#PlayerTeamPosADPADP rankVORVOR rankGapVolatility
19228
CAR logo
CAR
QB226.3196-1.085+111
Safe
27002
NO logo
NO
TE174.11519.668+83
Steady
312484
HOU logo
HOU
WR226.5197-33.3115+82
Lottery
48183
SF logo
SF
QB122.811660.034+82
Safe
511646
CAR logo
CAR
WR146.913523.254+81
Swing
69480
JAX logo
JAX
TE160.51423.975+67
Steady
796
PIT logo
PIT
QB228.8204-50.5140+64
Safe
89758
HOU logo
HOU
QB199.2170-26.1106+64
Safe
912545
NO logo
NO
QB181.8157-19.396+61
Swing
107594
CAR logo
CAR
RB81.28190.422+59
Swing
113163
DET logo
DET
QB131.212212.364+58
Safe
125844
MIN logo
MIN
TE163.3144-1.986+58
Lottery
137523
JAX logo
JAX
QB102.59946.641+58
Safe
148172
MIA logo
MIA
TE229.7207-59.0149+58
Lottery
1512522
TEN logo
TEN
QB229.8208-59.6151+57
Safe
1612501
GB logo
GB
WR125.211716.861+56
Swing
1711576
NYJ logo
NYJ
RB209.0179-41.5127+52
Lottery
185001
HOU logo
HOU
TE178.5154-20.7102+52
Lottery
196804
GB logo
GB
QB158.9140-3.989+51
Safe
204046
KC logo
KC
QB110.010618.256+50
Safe
214217
SF logo
SF
TE79.77970.930+49
Safe
228131
NYG logo
NYG
TE104.410029.551+49
Swing
238228
PIT logo
PIT
RB69.97090.323+47
Safe
248161
MIA logo
MIA
QB207.0177-46.2133+44
Swing
2512492
DEN logo
DEN
WR227.2199-68.5156+43
Lottery
2611603
SEA logo
SEA
TE187.5161-34.9119+42
Lottery
2712474
HOU logo
HOU
RB146.4134-15.993+41
Lottery
285012
BAL logo
BAL
TE125.71181.678+40
Swing
2911559
ATL logo
ATL
QB227.9201-81.0162+39
Swing
301466
KC logo
KC
TE89.88836.549+39
Safe
315022
PHI logo
PHI
TE118.21132.876+37
Steady
329487
JAX logo
JAX
WR72.77259.535+37
Swing
333214
NE logo
NE
TE141.8129-16.594+35
Lottery
344199
MIN logo
MIN
RB127.61190.084+35
Steady
352216
SF logo
SF
WR63.06373.229+34
Safe
365849
MIN logo
MIN
QB150.4137-21.8103+34
Safe
378167
GB logo
GB
WR66.96669.732+34
Swing
3810213
LV logo
LV
WR202.9173-51.9141+32
Lottery
3913346
CLE logo
CLE
WR169.2148-34.9118+30
Lottery
4010232
ARI logo
ARI
WR88.38717.759+28
Swing
418210
WAS logo
WAS
TE188.4162-46.3134+28
Lottery
4213269
LV logo
LV
QB201.8172-55.5145+27
Swing
437588
DAL logo
DAL
RB32.632132.38+24
Safe
4413330
NYJ logo
NYJ
TE172.8149-41.4126+23
Lottery
454943
SEA logo
SEA
QB162.2143-36.4120+23
Safe
466790
CHI logo
CHI
RB48.74983.626+23
Safe
4711610
MIA logo
MIA
WR176.1153-44.5131+22
Steady
489757
NO logo
NO
RB224.8194-95.0172+22
Lottery
497611
NE logo
NE
RB78.27818.157+21
Swing
509997
BAL logo
BAL
WR41.44191.520+21
Safe
511479
IND logo
IND
WR205.6176-73.6157+19
Lottery
528136
WAS logo
WAS
RB139.6128-27.3110+18
Lottery
539508
TEN logo
TEN
RB165.1146-43.4129+17
Lottery
548150
LA logo
LA
RB26.726128.910+16
Safe
5510236
BUF logo
BUF
TE87.2865.671+15
Lottery
5611584
TB logo
TB
RB43.84377.128+15
Safe
5712489
DEN logo
DEN
RB82.38210.567+15
Lottery
5812490
JAX logo
JAX
RB62.46238.947+15
Swing
5912469
CLE logo
CLE
RB208.5178-81.6164+14
Lottery
605850
GB logo
GB
RB51.25158.037+14
Safe
618151
KC logo
KC
RB19.819178.45+14
Safe
6212498
NYJ logo
NYJ
TE224.3193-109.8181+12
Lottery
6310859
DET logo
DET
TE57.65739.146+11
Safe
642133
LA logo
LA
WR50.15047.240+10
Safe
658130
ARI logo
ARI
TE25.425105.415+10
Safe
6612535
DET logo
DET
WR226.5198-135.2189+9
Lottery
674033
LAC logo
LAC
TE223.6191-114.0182+9
Lottery
687528FARB221.2188-109.1179+9
Lottery
6912487
LA logo
LA
TE204.3175-87.4167+8
Lottery
704892
TB logo
TB
QB144.4132-40.6124+8
Safe
715872
SF logo
SF
WR130.8121-32.4113+8
Steady
7211563
DEN logo
DEN
QB116.3111-21.9104+7
Safe
7312508
NYG logo
NYG
QB97.094-2.887+7
Swing
7413276
NYJ logo
NYJ
WR192.9166-76.1159+7
Lottery
757049
MIN logo
MIN
WR212.7183-99.4176+7
Lottery
768126
TEN logo
TEN
WR121.7115-27.1108+7
Steady
778146
NYJ logo
NYJ
WR45.44557.238+7
Safe
788408
MIN logo
MIN
RB109.0105-20.198+7
Swing
7911655
NYG logo
NYG
RB186.7160-64.0154+6
Lottery
805870
IND logo
IND
QB200.2171-84.6165+6
Safe
818132
ARI logo
ARI
RB143.1131-40.9125+6
Lottery
829484
GB logo
GB
TE64.26417.758+6
Swing
8311604
LV logo
LV
TE23.22397.918+5
Safe
8412497
SEA logo
SEA
WR228.7203-151.2198+5
Lottery
853198
BAL logo
BAL
RB18.418111.413+5
Safe
869511
LAC logo
LAC
RB183.3158-62.5153+5
Lottery
8712506
CLE logo
CLE
TE73.5737.269+4
Lottery
885967
TEN logo
TEN
RB83.8840.480+4
Steady
899226
MIA logo
MIA
RB13.813130.39+4
Safe
909753
SEA logo
SEA
RB149.6136-45.2132+4
Lottery
9113288
TEN logo
TEN
RB227.2200-150.2197+3
Lottery
923294
DAL logo
DAL
QB76.5765.173+3
Safe
934984
BUF logo
BUF
QB20.72098.517+3
Safe
945892
HOU logo
HOU
RB46.04640.543+3
Swing
958144
NO logo
NO
WR30.13082.827+3
Safe
969488
SEA logo
SEA
WR6.76188.33+3
Safe
9711624
KC logo
KC
WR134.3124-38.2122+2
Swing
9812457
PHI logo
PHI
RB228.6202-155.6201+1
Lottery
9912536
HOU logo
HOU
WR213.7184-115.2183+1
Lottery
10012540
TEN logo
TEN
WR229.4206-176.9205+1
Lottery
10113285
NYG logo
NYG
WR218.5186-118.3185+1
Lottery
1024034
SF logo
SF
RB5.15181.34+1
Safe
1036813
IND logo
IND
RB6.97163.16+1
Safe
1047567
TB logo
TB
RB111.8108-26.7107+1
Lottery
1057569
HOU logo
HOU
WR24.32488.3240
Safe
1069221
DET logo
DET
RB1.41257.610
Safe
1079500
IND logo
IND
WR113.1109-27.21090
Steady
1089509
ATL logo
ATL
RB2.72210.720
Safe
10911564
NE logo
NE
QB47.94738.248-1
Safe
11012533
WAS logo
WAS
RB115.9110-27.9111-1
Lottery
11113337
KC logo
KC
RB202.9174-98.7175-1
Lottery
1124039
SEA logo
SEA
WR195.9168-89.1169-1
Lottery
1135947
JAX logo
JAX
WR129.2120-37.1121-1
Steady
1148155
NYJ logo
NYJ
RB34.63558.636-1
Safe
11513268
BAL logo
BAL
WR229.2205-198.9207-2
Lottery
11613296
MIA logo
MIA
WR198.5169-91.1171-2
Lottery
1174881
BAL logo
BAL
QB31.53164.833-2
Safe
1184983
BUF logo
BUF
WR53.65320.855-2
Swing
11913279
TEN logo
TEN
WR69.1695.272-3
Swing
1204035
NO logo
NO
RB166.0147-59.4150-3
Lottery
1217547
DET logo
DET
WR8.88118.111-3
Safe
1228138
BUF logo
BUF
RB9.49113.112-3
Safe
1239493
LA logo
LA
WR4.94148.17-3
Safe
1249494
DEN logo
DEN
WR219.5187-141.5190-3
Lottery
12512547
NE logo
NE
WR222.1189-144.5193-4
Lottery
1266786
DAL logo
DAL
WR10.010106.314-4
Safe
12712518
IND logo
IND
TE48.04825.053-5
Safe
12812527
LV logo
LV
RB16.71691.021-5
Safe
1299224
CIN logo
CIN
RB14.01495.919-5
Safe
13011575
BUF logo
BUF
RB223.4190-149.1196-6
Lottery
13112504
GB logo
GB
RB215.1185-142.8191-6
Lottery
1326801
CIN logo
CIN
WR36.03642.142-6
Safe
1336806
DEN logo
DEN
RB90.789-17.095-6
Steady
13412526
CAR logo
CAR
WR37.43740.244-7
Swing
135421
LA logo
LA
QB94.392-20.199-7
Safe
1369504
HOU logo
HOU
WR195.6167-98.5174-7
Lottery
13712455
KC logo
KC
RB226.3195-169.2203-8
Lottery
13812512
CLE logo
CLE
RB54.95414.262-8
Swing
1398110
DAL logo
DAL
TE99.396-24.9105-9
Lottery
1408134
BUF logo
BUF
WR145.6133-52.3142-9
Steady
14111560
CHI logo
CHI
QB71.4710.081-10
Safe
1428112
ATL logo
ATL
WR20.92170.731-10
Safe
1436770
CIN logo
CIN
QB52.25213.863-11
Safe
1442449
WAS logo
WAS
WR104.5101-33.2114-13
Steady
1456794
MIN logo
MIN
WR12.11285.425-13
Safe
1467564
CIN logo
CIN
WR3.53102.016-13
Safe
14711618
TB logo
TB
WR209.2180-145.8194-14
Lottery
14812534
CHI logo
CHI
RB107.2103-34.8117-14
Lottery
1498121
NE logo
NE
WR132.1123-49.4137-14
Lottery
1505846
PIT logo
PIT
WR75.675-10.190-15
Steady
15111565
NYG logo
NYG
QB224.2192-284.5208-16
Lottery
15213281
NO logo
NO
WR117.5112-43.6130-18
Lottery
15313414
SF logo
SF
RB174.5152-89.9170-18
Lottery
1548154
ATL logo
ATL
RB173.4150-88.0168-18
Lottery
15513320
ATL logo
ATL
WR211.5181-155.4200-19
Lottery
15612476
WAS logo
WAS
RB211.9182-157.2202-20
Lottery
15710229
KC logo
KC
WR29.12934.350-21
Swing
15811581
GB logo
GB
RB137.2125-56.4146-21
Lottery
15911566
WAS logo
WAS
QB68.968-11.992-24
Safe
16011632
NYG logo
NYG
WR27.82829.352-24
Swing
16113298
CLE logo
CLE
WR120.6114-49.6138-24
Lottery
16212493
LAC logo
LAC
TE152.0139-86.4166-27
Lottery
16312519
CHI logo
CHI
WR55.3550.083-28
Swing
1644866
PHI logo
PHI
RB11.91151.239-28
Safe
1655859
NE logo
NE
WR17.91739.945-28
Swing
1667543
NO logo
NO
RB41.5426.570-28
Steady
1679225
PHI logo
PHI
RB181.2156-115.4184-28
Lottery
1688180
LV logo
LV
WR184.9159-133.0188-29
Lottery
1696904
PHI logo
PHI
QB58.258-3.588-30
Safe
1707526
DEN logo
DEN
WR44.9444.774-30
Swing
1717021
PIT logo
PIT
RB86.485-33.6116-31
Lottery
1726783
CLE logo
CLE
WR188.7163-147.4195-32
Lottery
1738148
DET logo
DET
WR59.059-11.091-32
Safe
17410219
JAX logo
JAX
RB142.8130-81.1163-33
Lottery
17513305
LV logo
LV
RB139.6127-78.3160-33
Lottery
17613345
DEN logo
DEN
RB164.7145-106.4178-33
Lottery
1774037
TB logo
TB
WR92.190-38.3123-33
Swing
1787525
PHI logo
PHI
WR33.73311.266-33
Safe
1798205
DET logo
DET
RB191.6165-153.5199-34
Lottery
1808676
SEA logo
SEA
WR151.1138-98.0173-35
Lottery
18112529
NE logo
NE
RB60.860-20.097-37
Swing
18213287
ARI logo
ARI
RB27.42712.365-38
Swing
1838137
DAL logo
DAL
WR22.42216.960-38
Safe
18411586
LA logo
LA
RB100.297-49.4136-39
Lottery
1859502
HOU logo
HOU
WR190.5164-170.3204-40
Lottery
18612517
CHI logo
CHI
TE39.0390.082-43
Swing
18710222
GB logo
GB
WR108.0104-58.5148-44
Lottery
1885927
WAS logo
WAS
WR55.456-20.4100-44
Steady
18911635
LAC logo
LAC
WR34.5341.079-45
Swing
1909756
MIN logo
MIN
WR101.398-54.0143-45
Lottery
19113293
BAL logo
BAL
WR159.2141-129.9187-46
Lottery
1928142
IND logo
IND
WR96.193-50.3139-46
Lottery
19311620
CHI logo
CHI
WR65.965-30.8112-47
Lottery
19413413
KC logo
KC
WR180.6155-190.5206-51
Lottery
19513417
SF logo
SF
WR138.7126-105.4177-51
Lottery
1969754
LAC logo
LAC
WR111.1107-79.1161-54
Lottery
1976819
PIT logo
PIT
WR106.0102-74.5158-56
Lottery
19811583
CAR logo
CAR
RB97.595-64.0155-60
Lottery
1996797
LAC logo
LAC
QB83.683-54.5144-61
Safe
2007553
ATL logo
ATL
TE67.567-41.5128-61
Lottery
20112507
LAC logo
LAC
RB15.4152.877-62
Lottery
20212514
TB logo
TB
WR38.538-20.6101-63
Swing
2035045
DEN logo
DEN
WR80.880-60.3152-72
Steady
20413286
SEA logo
SEA
RB61.861-46.9135-74
Lottery
20513294
PHI logo
PHI
WR93.291-109.5180-89
Lottery
20612481
NYG logo
NYG
RB40.640-57.0147-107
Lottery
20711631
JAX logo
JAX
WR74.074-120.6186-112
Lottery
20811628
HOU logo
HOU
WR76.977-143.7192-115
Lottery

How the gap is measured

We take value over the projected QB10 / RB30 / WR30 / TE15 (VOR) and rank every player two ways within this board: by ADP and by VOR. The gap is the ADP rank minus the VOR rank. A player our model ranks a round earlier than his ADP shows a positive gap — the market is letting him slide. A player the market pays up for shows a negative gap. Ranks are computed over the same joined pool, so a gap of zero means the market and our value agree exactly.

Cross-check with the tier cheat sheet, the live ADP board and the rest of the draft kit.

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