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Broncos vs Knights Prediction & Match Analysis — NRL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Knights by 1-6
Model score: Broncos 16 — 21 Knights
Total points: the model's 37-point expected total leans lower-scoring than a typical NRL game (~41 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Broncos 5, Knights 0, averaging 46.4 total points per game. Broncos have won 1 of their last 5. Knights have won 2 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Broncos 5, Knights 0 — averaging 46.4 total points per game.
- 10 — 18 @ Cowboys25 July 2026
- 14 — 12 @ Panthers16 July 2026
- 16 — 28 v Sharks4 July 2026
- 18 — 24 v Roosters26 June 2026
- 6 — 48 @ Rabbitohs11 June 2026
- 22 — 23 v Roosters24 July 2026
- 18 — 20 @ Sharks17 July 2026
- 24 — 26 @ Rabbitohs12 July 2026
- 13 — 12 v Dolphins5 July 2026
- 12 — 6 v Wests Tigers28 June 2026
Broncos
- Payne Haas
70.6 SC avg · 0.1 tries · 166m run · 33.6 tackles (11 games)
- Patrick Carrigan
67.7 SC avg · 0.1 tries · 134m run · 45.8 tackles (12 games)
- Jordan Riki
66.9 SC avg · 0.3 tries · 110m run · 38.1 tackles (16 games)
- Xavier Willison
63.2 SC avg · 0.3 tries · 131m run · 34.2 tackles (18 games)
Knights
- Kalyn Ponga
88.9 SC avg · 0.4 tries · 177m run · 2.9 tackles (10 games)
- Dylan Lucas
77.5 SC avg · 0.6 tries · 122m run · 37.6 tackles (16 games)
- Bradman Best
66.7 SC avg · 0.4 tries · 136m run · 13.4 tackles (11 games)
- Greg Marzhew
66.4 SC avg · 0.9 tries · 189m run · 1.8 tackles (18 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Full projections, DVP and prop hit rates for members — plus the multi builder for same-game analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Broncos and Knights team hubs.
Every published play, graded — Best Plays Tracker