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NRL Finals Week 1 2026 Predictions, Tips & Analysis
Who wins each game in Finals Week 1? A free, data-led call for every fixture — predicted winner, margin band and the key stat angles behind it — plus links to the full preview and match centre for each game.
Rabbitohs vs Knights
Rabbitohs by 7-12
Model score 32–26 · Expected total 58 points
- Rabbitohs have won 4 of their last 5; Knights have won 3 of their last 5.
- Rabbitohs are averaging 33.6 points a game in that stretch, while Knights have conceded 29.2 a game.
- Knights have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, averaging 51 total points.
Warriors vs Dolphins
Warriors by 1-6
Model score 28–24 · Expected total 52 points
- Warriors have won 5 of their last 5; Dolphins have won 5 of their last 5.
- Warriors are averaging 38 points a game in that stretch, while Dolphins have conceded 16 a game.
- Dolphins have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, averaging 44 total points.
Sharks vs Cowboys
Sharks by 1-6
Model score 30–25 · Expected total 54 points
- Sharks have won 1 of their last 5; Cowboys have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sharks are averaging 20.8 points a game in that stretch, while Cowboys have conceded 36.4 a game.
- Sharks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, averaging 53.6 total points.
Panthers vs Roosters
Panthers by 7-12
Model score 24–15 · Expected total 39 points
- Panthers have won 3 of their last 5; Roosters have won 2 of their last 5.
- Panthers are averaging 20.4 points a game in that stretch, while Roosters have conceded 25 a game.
- Panthers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, averaging 44.8 total points.
How these predictions are made
Every call is generated from real completed results: each club's recent points scored and conceded, matched attack against defence with a small home-ground adjustment. The same model powers the weekly predictions hub and every match preview, so the numbers always agree. It is a data lean, not a certainty — team news can move any game.
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More this round: the positional matchups behind these calls on the Round 28 matchup edge, fixtures, kickoffs and venues on the Round 28 hub, and every upcoming call on the predictions hub.