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Cowboys vs Roosters Prediction & Match Analysis — NRL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Roosters by 1-6
Model score: Cowboys 18 — 22 Roosters
Total points: the model's 40-point expected total sits in line with a typical NRL game (~41 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Cowboys 3, Roosters 2, averaging 38 total points per game. Cowboys have won 3 of their last 5. Roosters have won 5 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Cowboys 3, Roosters 2 — averaging 38 total points per game.
- 18 — 10 v Broncos25 July 2026
- 16 — 36 @ Dolphins19 July 2026
- 19 — 18 @ Sea Eagles12 July 2026
- 26 — 12 v Panthers27 June 2026
- 20 — 38 @ Warriors21 June 2026
- 23 — 22 @ Knights24 July 2026
- 14 — 6 v Storm17 July 2026
- 28 — 12 v Eels11 July 2026
- 24 — 18 @ Broncos26 June 2026
- 27 — 8 v Sharks21 June 2026
Cowboys
- Tom Dearden
76.1 SC avg · 0.2 tries · 110m run · 23.7 tackles (11 games)
- Scott Drinkwater
71.0 SC avg · 0.5 tries · 150m run · 6.1 tackles (19 games)
- Heilum Luki
70.0 SC avg · 0.4 tries · 106m run · 39.9 tackles (19 games)
- Braidon Burns
69.7 SC avg · 0.8 tries · 188m run · 5.0 tackles (15 games)
Roosters
- James Tedesco
77.5 SC avg · 0.6 tries · 208m run · 2.9 tackles (15 games)
- Billy Smith
70.7 SC avg · 0.8 tries · 145m run · 11.4 tackles (10 games)
- Robert Toia
70.5 SC avg · 0.6 tries · 107m run · 20.3 tackles (15 games)
- Sam Walker
68.5 SC avg · 0.4 tries · 88m run · 15.6 tackles (16 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Full projections, DVP and prop hit rates for members — plus the multi builder for same-game analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Cowboys and Roosters team hubs.
Every published play, graded — Best Plays Tracker