Who will win Sharks vs Cowboys?

Our form-based model leans Sharks by 1-6 points, from a model score of Sharks 30 to 25 Cowboys.

What is the Sharks vs Cowboys prediction for NRL Round 28 2026?

Our form-based model leans Sharks by 1-6 points, from a model score of Sharks 30 to 25 Cowboys. The model expects about 54 combined points — higher-scoring than a typical NRL game. The prediction is built from each side's recent points scored and conceded, with a home-ground adjustment.

Are these Sharks vs Cowboys tips free?

Yes. The predicted winner, margin band and total-points lean for Sharks vs Cowboys are free and need no account. Stats Lab members also get player projections, DVP matchup tools and the multi builder for the fixture.

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Sharks vs Cowboys Prediction Round 28 2026

Who wins Sharks vs Cowboys? Our form-based model leans Sharks by 1-6. Read the full preview below.

A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side. Includes multi tips for the fixture.

Sharks

Cowboys

Round 28 · 2026

Saturday NightSharks Stadium

Our prediction

Sharks by 1-6

Model score: Sharks 30–25 Cowboys

Total points: the model's 54-point expected total leans higher-scoring than a typical NRL game (~41 combined points).

How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.

What the numbers say

Across their last 5 meetings it is Sharks 3, Cowboys 2, averaging 53.6 total points per game. Sharks have won 1 of their last 5. Cowboys have won 2 of their last 5.

Recent head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sharks 3, Cowboys 2, averaging 53.6 total points per game.

Cowboys 46–34 SharksRd 8 2026 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Sharks 32–12 CowboysRd 22 2025 · Sharks Stadium

Cowboys 12–36 SharksRd 2 2025 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Sharks 26–18 CowboysRd 29 2024 · Allianz Stadium

Cowboys 30–22 SharksRd 21 2024 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Form guide: last 5 games

SharksLLWLL

20–24 v Storm5 Sept 2026
18–38 @ Eels30 Aug 2026
30–22 @ Titans23 Aug 2026
20–24 v Raiders15 Aug 2026
16–24 @ Dragons9 Aug 2026

CowboysLWLWL

30–50 v Raiders5 Sept 2026
24–10 v Wests Tigers29 Aug 2026
30–32 @ Eels15 Aug 2026
30–8 @ Titans6 Aug 2026
12–82 v Roosters30 July 2026

Key players: season averages

Sharks

Nicholas Hynes
96.7 SC avg · 0.3 tries · 100m run · 22.3 tackles (20 games)
Blayke Brailey
69.8 SC avg · 0.2 tries · 54m run · 39.1 tackles (19 games)
Sione Katoa
64.9 SC avg · 0.9 tries · 158m run · 1.8 tackles (18 games)
KL Iro
64.3 SC avg · 0.6 tries · 152m run · 16.3 tackles (21 games)

Cowboys

Tom Dearden
72.2 SC avg · 0.1 tries · 103m run · 22.2 tackles (13 games)
Scott Drinkwater
71.3 SC avg · 0.4 tries · 148m run · 5.7 tackles (24 games)
Heilum Luki
69.3 SC avg · 0.5 tries · 107m run · 38.7 tackles (24 games)
Braidon Burns
68.4 SC avg · 0.8 tries · 182m run · 5.4 tackles (20 games)

Go deeper before lockout

Full projections and DVP for members, plus the multi builder for same-game analysis.

Lockout hub Multi builder

More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 28 match previews page, all Round 28 predictions sit on one page, with deeper club data on the Sharks and Cowboys team hubs.

Which club leaks points to which position across the whole round, matched to the players named opposite them: Round 28 matchup edge.

Every published play, graded on the Best Plays Tracker