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Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Prediction, Tips & Preview - AFL Round 23 2026
Who wins Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns? Our form-based model leans Brisbane Lions by 1-11. Read the full preview below.
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages: head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Brisbane Lions by 1-11
Model score: Brisbane Lions 98–91 Gold Coast Suns
Total points: the model's 189-point expected total leans higher-scoring than a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty: injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Brisbane Lions 4, Gold Coast Suns 1, averaging 152.2 total points per game. Brisbane Lions have won 3 of their last 5. Gold Coast Suns have won 3 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Brisbane Lions 4, Gold Coast Suns 1, averaging 152.2 total points per game.
- 60–104 @ Sydney Swans14 Mar 2026
- 113–80 @ St Kilda Saints28 Mar 2026
- 119–65 v Collingwood Magpies2 Apr 2026
- 92–66 @ North Melbourne Kangaroos11 Apr 2026
- 102–104 @ Melbourne Demons19 Apr 2026
- 131–72 v West Coast Eagles15 Mar 2026
- 128–60 @ Richmond Tigers21 Mar 2026
- 89–109 @ Melbourne Demons5 Apr 2026
- 68–100 @ Sydney Swans11 Apr 2026
- 119–110 v Essendon Bombers18 Apr 2026
Brisbane Lions
- Lachie Neale
109.3 SC avg · 30.2 disposals · 0.3 goals · 5.7 marks (20 games)
- Will Ashcroft
105.1 SC avg · 28.2 disposals · 0.7 goals · 5.0 marks (20 games)
- Zac Bailey
98.5 SC avg · 21.4 disposals · 1.6 goals · 5.3 marks (19 games)
- Dayne Zorko
97.0 SC avg · 25.2 disposals · 0.2 goals · 6.9 marks (10 games)
Gold Coast Suns
- Noah Anderson
106.0 SC avg · 27.5 disposals · 0.3 goals · 5.3 marks (19 games)
- John Noble
101.0 SC avg · 26.3 disposals · 0.3 goals · 7.1 marks (20 games)
- Bodhi Uwland
99.5 SC avg · 23.4 disposals · 0.1 goals · 6.2 marks (20 games)
- Christian Petracca
98.1 SC avg · 24.3 disposals · 1.2 goals · 3.3 marks (18 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members, to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 23 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns team hubs.