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Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Match Analysis — AFL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Fremantle Dockers by 12-23
Model score: Melbourne Demons 76 — 90 Fremantle Dockers
Total points: the model's 166-point expected total sits in line with a typical AFL game (~176 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds an 8-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 4 meetings it is Melbourne Demons 1, Fremantle Dockers 3, averaging 191 total points per game. Melbourne Demons have won 3 of their last 5. Fremantle Dockers have won 5 of their last 5.
Last 4 meetings: Melbourne Demons 1, Fremantle Dockers 3 — averaging 191 total points per game.
- 70 — 118 @ Fremantle Dockers21 Mar 2026
- 100 — 77 @ Carlton Blues29 Mar 2026
- 109 — 89 v Gold Coast Suns5 Apr 2026
- 68 — 113 @ Essendon Bombers11 Apr 2026
- 104 — 102 v Brisbane Lions19 Apr 2026
- 118 — 70 v Melbourne Demons21 Mar 2026
- 103 — 43 v Richmond Tigers28 Mar 2026
- 78 — 76 @ Adelaide Crows3 Apr 2026
- 45 — 39 @ Collingwood Magpies10 Apr 2026
- 97 — 41 @ West Coast Eagles19 Apr 2026
Melbourne Demons
- Max Gawn
125.4 SC avg · 21.3 disposals · 0.6 goals · 4.3 marks (19 games)
- Jake Bowey
102.2 SC avg · 25.0 disposals · 0.1 goals · 4.4 marks (11 games)
- Jack Steele
97.9 SC avg · 24.2 disposals · 0.2 goals · 3.4 marks (19 games)
- Kysaiah Pickett
97.8 SC avg · 22.4 disposals · 1.3 goals · 3.2 marks (19 games)
Fremantle Dockers
- Luke Jackson
116.6 SC avg · 17.6 disposals · 1.1 goals · 2.7 marks (20 games)
- Andrew Brayshaw
101.9 SC avg · 24.7 disposals · 0.3 goals · 3.5 marks (20 games)
- Caleb Serong
98.1 SC avg · 24.2 disposals · 0.5 goals · 2.7 marks (17 games)
- Shai Bolton
97.2 SC avg · 22.7 disposals · 0.9 goals · 2.8 marks (19 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Matchup strength by position and full positional rankings for members — to sharpen your team and matchup analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Melbourne Demons and Fremantle Dockers team hubs.