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Dragons vs Dolphins Prediction & Match Analysis — NRL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Dragons by 1-6
Model score: Dragons 24 — 21 Dolphins
Total points: the model's 46-point expected total leans higher-scoring than a typical NRL game (~41 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Dragons 2, Dolphins 3, averaging 44 total points per game. Dragons have won 1 of their last 5. Dolphins have won 3 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Dragons 2, Dolphins 3 — averaging 44 total points per game.
- 18 — 38 v Titans26 July 2026
- 12 — 20 @ Warriors18 July 2026
- 24 — 10 v Wests Tigers4 July 2026
- 16 — 24 @ Raiders28 June 2026
- 20 — 22 @ Knights19 June 2026
- 36 — 16 v Cowboys19 July 2026
- 0 — 66 v Sharks11 July 2026
- 12 — 13 @ Knights5 July 2026
- 26 — 24 v Warriors27 June 2026
- 36 — 22 @ Wests Tigers20 June 2026
Dragons
- Toby Couchman
73.3 SC avg · 0.0 tries · 146m run · 42.2 tackles (17 games)
- Hamish Stewart
70.8 SC avg · 0.2 tries · 97m run · 43.4 tackles (18 games)
- Ryan Couchman
70.6 SC avg · 0.0 tries · 126m run · 43.6 tackles (14 games)
- Valentine Holmes
62.7 SC avg · 0.4 tries · 123m run · 11.9 tackles (18 games)
Dolphins
- Herbie Farnworth
86.4 SC avg · 0.5 tries · 160m run · 15.1 tackles (17 games)
- Jamayne Isaako
81.7 SC avg · 0.9 tries · 165m run · 4.7 tackles (18 games)
- Jack Bostock
75.1 SC avg · 0.5 tries · 160m run · 15.6 tackles (8 games)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
72.2 SC avg · 0.6 tries · 182m run · 6.5 tackles (13 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Full projections, DVP and prop hit rates for members — plus the multi builder for same-game analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Dragons and Dolphins team hubs.
Every published play, graded — Best Plays Tracker