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Sharks vs Rabbitohs Prediction & Match Analysis — NRL Round 22 2026
A free, data-led preview built from real results and season averages — head-to-head history, recent form and the key players on each side.
Sharks by 13-18
Model score: Sharks 31 — 19 Rabbitohs
Total points: the model's 50-point expected total leans higher-scoring than a typical NRL game (~41 combined points).
How this works: our model averages each side's points scored and conceded across their last 5 completed games, matches attack against defence, and adds a 2-point home-ground adjustment. A data lean, not a certainty — injuries and team news can move it.
What the numbers say
Across their last 5 meetings it is Sharks 4, Rabbitohs 1, averaging 39 total points per game. Sharks have won 4 of their last 5. Rabbitohs have won 3 of their last 5.
Last 5 meetings: Sharks 4, Rabbitohs 1 — averaging 39 total points per game.
- 48 — 12 @ Sea Eagles26 July 2026
- 20 — 18 v Knights17 July 2026
- 66 — 0 @ Dolphins11 July 2026
- 28 — 16 @ Broncos4 July 2026
- 8 — 27 @ Roosters21 June 2026
- 28 — 26 v Storm24 July 2026
- 24 — 34 @ Raiders18 July 2026
- 26 — 24 v Knights12 July 2026
- 14 — 36 @ Panthers3 July 2026
- 32 — 12 @ Eels25 June 2026
Sharks
- Nicholas Hynes
99.8 SC avg · 0.5 tries · 94m run · 22.6 tackles (15 games)
- Blayke Brailey
69.9 SC avg · 0.1 tries · 54m run · 40.2 tackles (14 games)
- KL Iro
67.2 SC avg · 0.7 tries · 148m run · 18.0 tackles (17 games)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo
65.1 SC avg · 1.0 tries · 152m run · 4.4 tackles (9 games)
Rabbitohs
- Latrell Mitchell
110.3 SC avg · 1.2 tries · 128m run · 9.4 tackles (9 games)
- Alex Johnston
75.3 SC avg · 1.4 tries · 139m run · 4.1 tackles (15 games)
- Tallis Duncan
74.9 SC avg · 0.5 tries · 134m run · 26.0 tackles (17 games)
- Latrell Siegwalt
71.1 SC avg · 0.1 tries · 119m run · 13.6 tackles (7 games)
Go deeper before lockout
Full projections, DVP and prop hit rates for members — plus the multi builder for same-game analysis.
More this round: every fixture is listed on the Round 22 match previews page, with deeper club data on the Sharks and Rabbitohs team hubs.
Every published play, graded — Best Plays Tracker